How Rutgers Football can defeat Nebraska this weekend
Similar to last week, let's break down this year's Nebraska Football team on a deeper level ahead of their matchup against Rutgers Football this weekend.
Here's what I found...
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PASSING....
QUARTERBACK...
Dylan Raiola is the freshman starting QB for the Cornhuskers, coming in with much fanfare and was the #1 QB (and #2 overall) recruit in the country last year. His freshman year has been a mixed bag so far...
-- On passes at/behind the LOS and short passes, he's completing almost 90% of his passes (64/73 [87.7%] for yards and 3 TD) on the season.
-- Raiola has a very strong arm but is inconsistent when throwing deep. He's made some spectacular plays downfield and then overthrown wide open receivers (or thrown interceptions) later that drive.
-- Raiola likes to improvise but he's ALWAYS looking to extend plays to pass the ball. On the season he just has ONE scramble. He holds onto the ball too long trying to make big plays, which can sometimes result in long completions and others in backbreaking sacks.
-- Raiola is a young QB and does NOT like to be pressured. Here are his splits when pressured vs not being pressured...
-- Kept Clean: 80/103 (77.7%) for 945 yards, 6 TDs and 2 INTs.
-- Pressured: 19/40 (47.5%) for 276 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs.
PASS CATCHERS...
Nebraska likes to spread the ball around, with 5 receivers having between 10% and 18% team target shares on the season. Their top two targets are huge (6-4, 220lbs).
-- Isaiah Neyor is listed at 6-4, 220 lbs and leads the team in targets, yards and TDs with 17 receptions (26 targets) for 291 yards and 4 TD. The majority of his targets (20/26) come in the in the intermediate and deep passing game and all of his TDs coming in these ranges. He played 3 years at Wyoming before transferring to Texas last year and is spending his COVID extra year as a Husker.
-- Jahmal Banks is also listed at 6-4, 220 lbs and leads the Cornhuskers in receptions (20) and is 2nd in targets (25), yards (252) and TDs (2). Banks spent his first four seasons at Wake Forest before transferring to Nebraska this offseason to use his COVID year.
-- FR WR Jacory Barney Jr (6-0, 170 lbs), JR TE Thomas Fidone II (6-6, 255lbs) and SR RB (and NJ native) Rahmir Johnson (5-10, 200lbs) round out the top group of receivers, combining for 49 targets (39 receptions) for 335 yards and 1 TD.
RUSHING...
The rushing game for Nebraska is a committee approach, with various backs (and WRs) handling different roles on the team
-- The lead back is SO RB Dante Dowdell, who has 60 carries for 277 yards (4.6 ypc) and 4 TDs on the year. Dowdell has yet to top 75 yards in a game this season and is currently averaging just 3.2 ypc in Big Ten play. He's also not really utilized in the pass game, with only 2 catches for 10 yards on the year.
-- Their next two backs are much better receivers than Dowdell in SO Emmett Johnson and SR Rahmir Johnson.
-- Emmett Johnson: 21 carries for 174 yards and 1 TD (8.3 ypc).
-- Rahmir Johnson: 31 carries for 113 yards and 0 TDs (3.6 ypc).
-- Nebraska has run a lot of end arounds and jet sweeps with their RBs and WRs, which they're averaging 11.4 ypc on the season on (10 attempts for 114 yards). FR WR Jacory Barney Jr is the primary threat to watch here with 7 carries for 104 yards and 2 TDs in the run game.
OFFENSIVE LINE...
Nebraska's OL ranks as follows on PFF:
-- 71st in pass blocking (67.9 team grade)
-- 54th in run blocking (66.1 team grade)
Nebraska allowed 8 sacks on the season and according to PFF, just 4 of those sacks are due to pass blocking (the remaining 4 are attributed to the QB). Nebraska hasn't faced many good pass rush units thus far, here's where their opponents rank in team pass rush grade on PFF:
-- UTEP: 59.5 (123rd)
-- Colorado: 61.2 (118th)
-- Northern Iowa: FCS program
-- Illinois: 71.9 (43rd)
-- Purdue: 65.4 (95th)
PENALTIES...
Nebraska is right up there with Washington when it comes to committing penalties. Nebraska is 106th in the country in penalties per game (8.0) and 107th in penalty yards per game (73.4). This is a flaw that we can exploit. Nebraska has committed this many penalties despite playing 4 of their first 5 games at home as well.
DEFENSE...
RUSHING DEFENSE...
Nebraska's run defense ranks 15th nationally in FBS rushing yards per game (85.4) but those numbers are a bit deceiving. Nebraska has faced the following rushing offenses this season (all in FBS rushing yards per game)...
-- UTEP: 126th
-- Colorado: 124th
-- Northern Iowa: FCS program
-- Illinois: 98th
-- Purdue: 79th
They are the only FBS program to not allow a rushing TD yet on the season, but when you see who they have played it makes more sense. Nebraska has also held big halftime leads in 3 of it's 5 games, so most of their opponents have had to throw their way back into games...
-- UTEP: 30-7
-- Colorado: 28-0
-- Northern Iowa: 21-3
PFF ranks Nebraska at 37th in the FBS in team run defense grade at 83.7 and 40th in tackling grade at a 72.0. Rutgers should be able to move the ball on the ground against Nebraska. Nebraska's defense is allowing -0.01 EPA/rush on defense, which is middle of the pack (#71) in the FBS despite facing nothing but bottom half of FBS rushing games. Rutgers ranks 12th in rushing yards per game at 237.8 yards per game and 34th in EPA/rush at 0.12.
PASSING DEFENSE...
Nebraska allows the 46th most passing yards per game in the FBS at 188.8 and is 47th in EPA/play against the pass at -0.12. Nebraska has intercepted exactly one pass per game each game this season, with two of those being returned for TDs. Nebraska ranks 17th in team pass rushing grade on PFF at 79.1 and 28th in coverage grade at 88.3. Nebraska has a very experienced secondary, with 7 of the 8 players in the two deep being juniors or seniors.
Nebraska ranks 82nd in FBS in 3rd down conversion rate defensively (39.7%) and Rutgers ranks 17th in FBS in 3rd down conversion rate offensively (51.0%). Staying on schedule will be critically important to exploit this advantage Rutgers has in the game.
PASS RUSH...
Nebraska has a very good pass rush, led by SR DT Ty Robinson (6-6, 310 lbs) who leads the team with 3 sacks and also has 2 PDs at the LOS. He may be the most disruptive iDL Rutgers will face all season. They've got 16 sacks on the season, which averages out to 3.2 per game (13th in the FBS). Nebraska has not faced an OL nearly as good as Rutgers yet, here are their opponent's team pass blocking grades:
-- UTEP: 70.7 (59th)
-- Colorado: 65.2 (83rd)
-- Northern Iowa: FCS
-- Illinois: 61.2 (101st)
-- Purdue: 62.6 (95th)
This will still be a challenge for Rutgers OL to stop a potent pass rush. If Rutgers is forced into a lot of 3rd and long situations, it will be a long day for the Scarlet Knights.
SPECIAL TEAMS...
Now this is an area Rutgers can and should exploit. Nebraska is a mess on special teams. Nebraska has allowed 3 blocked kicks on the year (worst in FBS) and had two FGs blocked last week in the first half alone vs Purdue. Their two kickers have combined to go 4 for 9 kicking on the season with a long of 31 (!!) yards. They have also allowed 1 blocked punt this year. We need to dial up a Schiano special and block a kick/punt this week in Lincoln.
HOW RUTGERS WINS....
1. Rutgers needs to establish the run and set the tone of the game early. They have to get out to an early lead and have Nebraska playing from behind.
2. While Schiano said Dylan Raiola has an advanced understanding and command of his offense, he's still just 18 years old and making his 6th college start. Rutgers needs to throw the kitchen sink at him. Exotic blitzes, changing up coverages, etc. Make him uncomfortable.
3. Make a big play on special teams. Rutgers has come close a few times this year on a blocked kick/punt, but they're gonna need one this weekend. They're arguably the biggest momentum swinging play in football. In Schiano’s 15+ years as the HC at Rutgers, his special teams units have blocked 71 kicks/punts and have 63 non-offensive TDs. They really could use one on Saturday.
4. DO NOT allow Raiola to escape the pocket and turn this into a backyard football game. He loves to run around and improvise until his guys free up downfield.
5. Nebraska will likely be going for it a lot on 4th down due to their miscues in the kicking game this season. Rutgers needs to assume they'll be going for it anytime Nebraska is past the 50 yard line and it's 4th and 5 or shorter. Rutgers defense needs to game plan accordingly.
This will likely be the toughest game yet to win on the schedule for Rutgers. I had RU starting the season 4-0 with their first loss being to Nebraska in Lincoln. There is a path to victory in this one, but the defense will need to take a step forward to go along with some big plays in the rushing game and special teams for Rutgers.
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