RutgersFan.com NCAA Bubble Blotter

OK, it's getting down to nitty-gritty time. Conference tournaments have already begun, as championship week is well under way. There are 31 automatic bids given out to conference tourney winners, with 34 at-large bids to be handed out on Selection Sunday. Here is what we know so far ...

Conference Tournament Winners

Atlantic Sun: Central Florida

Big South: Winthrop

Colonial Athletic Association: Old Dominion

Ivy League: Penn

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference: Niagara

Missouri Valley Conference: Creighton

Ohio Valley: Eastern Kentucky

Southern: Chattanooga

West Coast Conference: Gonzaga

Virtual Locks

8 conferences are pretty much assured to be one-bid leagues: Big Sky, Mid-Continent, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Northeast, Southwestern Athletic, Southern, Southland and Sun Belt. The following teams are virtual locks, in my opinion, to make the NCAA tourney:

Atlantic Coast: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke

Big East: Boston College, Connecticut, Syracuse, Villanova, Pittsburgh

Big West: Pacific

Big Ten: Illiniois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota

Big 12: Oklahoma State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech

Conference USA: Louisville, Cincinnati, Charlotte

Missouri Valley: Southern Illinois

Mountain West: Utah

Pacific-10: Washington, Arizona, UCLA, Stanford

Southeastern: Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, Florida, Mississippi State

Western Athletic: Nevada, UTEP

West Coast: Gonzaga, Saint Mary's

Mid-Major Bubbles

There are 5 conferences that need to be addressed because they might just send their tournament winner but have a chance to send one or two additional teams.

AMERICA EAST

VERMONT (23-6, 23 rpi)

NORTHEASTERN (21-8, 43 rpi)

The Skinny: They will play each other for the America East title Saturday. The question is, can the loser get an at-large bid? The rpis say yes, but they are inflated because of the new calculations. Vermont is 3-3 vs. top 50 rpi teams, but again, that is a result of the new rpi system. However, it might be tough to leave out the Catamounts if they don't win the tourney. They have been a media darling all season long. Northeastern has no wins vs. rpi top 50 teams and simply must win the AE tourney to get a bid.

ATLANTIC 10

SAINT JOSEPH'S (17-10, 63 rpi)

GEORGE WASHINGTON (19-7, 79 rpi)

The Skinny: St. Joe's won 9 of its last 11 and finished 14-2 in league, but they have no real nonconference wins, and their loss to awful Rhode Island will probably be what keeps them for receiving an at-large bid. GW has wins over Michigan State and Maryland to its credit, but losing to Richmond, Xavier twice and a 15-point home loss to St Joe's really hurt. They have a shot based on reputation more than overall numbers if they can reach the A-10 finals but really need the number of conference tourney upset winners to be low.

HORIZON LEAGUE

WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE (21-5, 55 rpi)

The Skinny: UWM meets Detroit on Wednesday for the Horizon League tourney title. They have won 16 of their past 17 and finished 14-2 in league. However, they are 0-2 vs. top 100 rpi teams, although those losses were to Kansas and Wisconsin. Tough call for them to get an at-large bid. The schedule just isn't there, but they are helped out by lots of bubble teams losing lately. Still a longshot.

MID-AMERICAN

MIAMI of OHIO (18-9, 29 rpi)

BUFFALO (20-8, 35 rpi)

KENT STATE 18-11, 38 rpi)

AKRON (18-9, 42 rpi)

OHIO (18-10, 59 rpi)

The Skinny: The MAC is a muddled mess right now. Just when it looked like a couple of teams were breaking away from the pack, they lost and now basically they are all even heading into the MAC tourney, which began Monday night with wins for the above 5 teams. Miami does have a little advantage because they did win the East Division of the MAC. Unfortunately, Miami closed the season with 3 losses in their last 4 regular-season games, including their finale vs. 6-21 Marshall.

Buffalo won 6 of its last 7 regular-season games, and its win over Akron in the finale was huge. Akron, meanwhile, lost 2 of its last 3 regular-season games. Kent State recovered from an early February slump to win 3 of its last 4 regular-season games, but that one loss was to Miami by 25. Its wins were over Akron and Ohio. Ohio won 4 of its last 5 regular-season games, but their last loss was to Kent State.

So as you can see, all these teams are beating up on one another. The MAC tourney will simply decide NCAA or NIT for them. The MAC figures to get 2 bids total but will not get any additional bids. A good bet is that if 2 of these 5 make the conference finals, they are as good as in. We must simply wait and see.

PATRIOT LEAGUE

HOLY CROSS (22-5, 45 rpi)

The Skinny: The Crusaders have won 16 in a row and finished their regular-season Patriot League slate 13-1. Their only other losses were to BC, Minnesota, Vermont and Princeton. They are just 3-4 vs. top 100 rpi teams, but I think they have a decent shot at an at-large given how the bubble teams are popping all around them. Holy Cross will play Bucknell on Friday for the league tourney title.

Best of the Rest

Taking into consideration the automatic bids from those 5 conferences, that takes our number up to 54 bids out of 65 accounted for. In addition to the bubble teams mentioned just above, here is how the rest shake out ...

NORTHERN IOWA (20-10, 36 rpi): They set themselves up nicely going into the Missouri Valley tourney, but that loss to SW Missouri State in the first round simply put a final nail in their coffin despite their decent rpi number and 6-7 mark vs. top 100 rpi teams.

GEORGIA TECH (17-10, 37 rpi): The Yellowjackets lost 8 of their last 14 but still managed to reach 8-8 in the ACC, which should be good enough to get the 4th bid from a weakened conference. Their early-season form is long forgotten, but a win at the end of January vs. Wake Forest was huge. Their 1-7 record vs. top 100 rpi teams is a huge concern. They received the No. 5 seed and a first-round bye in the ACC tourney, and it would behoove them to beat fellow ACC bubble team Virginia Tech in the ACC quarters.

WICHITA STATE (20-9, 46 rpi): Wheat Shockers finished the regular season with 5 losses in their last 6, and their loss to Creighton in the Missouri Valley semis dooms them to the NIT.

MARYLAND (16-11, 49 rpi): The Terps finish under the magical .500 mark in the ACC at 7-9. They can only live off of the 2 Duke wins for so long. They lost 6 of their last 9, 4 of their last 5 and their last 3 -- including at Virginia Tech and the second time to Clemson. All that adds up to a team on the wrong side of the bubble. Maryland simply will need to go out and win their opening-round ACC game and then might also have to go out and beat UNC in the quarters.

SOUTHWEST MISSOURI STATE (18-12, 50 rpi): SWMS had a huge upset of Southern Illinois in the Missouri Valley semis following big win over Northern Iowa. SWMS is 7-8 vs. top 100 rpi teams after losing to Creighton in the final Monday night, but they have some bad losses and their schedule wasnt that impressive.

IOWA (19-10, 54 rpi): At first glance, the Hawkeyes have all the credentials. They are 5-6 vs. top 50 rpi teams, 8-7 vs. top 100 rpi team, are a respectable 6-7 on the road and boast wins over Louisville, Texas, Northern Iowa, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Minnesota, Indiana and Ohio State. What is the problem, you ask? Well, their 7-9 Big Ten mark is all that is holding them back ... plus a hideous loss to 7-20 Purdue. Hawkeyes need to redeem themselves in the Big Ten tourney, which means they absolutely must knock off Wisconsin and then quite possibly Michigan State. If they can't accomplish the latter, the NCAA committee will have a tough time deciding their fate.

DePAUL (18-9, 56 rpi): Demons were at near-lock status but have dropped 4 of their last 6. Still, if they should beat Tulane in their opening-round Conference USA tourney game, they should be in. However, an interesting quarterfinal tilt against fellow C-USA bubble UAB could have interesting implications. They might want to win that to be sure, because if they don't, UAB possibly locks up their own bid.

MIAMI (Fla.) (16-11, 58 rpi): 'Canes ended the season with 4 losses in their last 5 and finished just 7-9 in the ACC. They don't have the name power of Georgia Tech and Maryland, so they will be up against it for a bid. A possible 2nd-round ACC win over Duke probably won't even be enough ... must make ACC finals.

IOWA STATE (17-10, 64 rpi): The Cyclones' losses last week to Texas A&M and Nebraska hurt, but they still finished the season with 9 wins in their last 11 games. With a healthy amount of big wins in the Big 12, they need only to beat Baylor in Big 12 opening round and they are locked in.

ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM (20-9, 65 rpi): The Blazers closed out with 4 straight wins to land at 10-6 and in 4th place in CUSA. The bye actual hurts them in the CUSA tourney, as they will play the winner of DePaul-Tulane in the quarterfinals. Beating DePaul could go a long way toward getting a bid, but they also have to beat top seed Louisville in the semis to ensure a bid.

TEXAS A&M (17-8, 66 rpi): Aggies are an unlikely bubble team with a horrible nonconference schedule -- including 2 Division II wins that cut back on their win total. They do have a couple of nice Big 12 wins, but the Aggies simply don't have the resume. Their only way to get to an at-large is to beat Kansas State, Kansas and Oklahoma State successively, and that is highly unlikely.

VANDERBILT (18-12, 68 rpi): The Commodores blew their opportunity with a regular-season finale loss at LSU. Their road mark of 2-10 is a big problem, as is their 2-8 mark vs. top 50 rpi teams. The Commodores probably need at least 2 SEC tourney wins to go dancing and might just need a win in the SEC semis as well.

WEST VIRGINIA (18-9, 69 rpi): The Mountaineers blew a chance to lock up a bid by losing at Seton Hall. Now they will absolutely have to beat Providence in the first round of the Big East tourney, but will that be enough? WVU does have some big wins, and it finished with 6 wins in its last 8 games. Winning against BC in the quarters is a tough task and would surely get them in. I still tend to think as long as they play BC tough in defeat they will sneak in and get a bid.

INDIANA (15-12, 70 rpi): Almost the opposite case of Iowa. The Hooisers finished with a great Big Ten mark at 10-6 but did poorly out of conference with no quality wins. In Big Ten play, they beat Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Ohio State, but I'm not sure that can overcome the overall poor record without a run to the Big Ten finals, which would mean beating Minnesota and Illinois. By just beating Minnesota, the Hoosiers would be 16-13, and I just can't see the NCAA looking fondly on that ... might depend on how Iowa fares.

NOTRE DAME (17-10, 77 rpi): ND's rpi has started to fall like a rock of late, as the Irish lost 3 of their last 4 down the stretch, with the only win against Rutgers. Their 9-7 mark in Big East play is good enough, considering the Irish played one of the toughest league schedules. The Irish might be rueing that loss to Michigan earlier in the season and the one to UCLA late. Still, if Notre Dame can win their first-round game vs. Rutgers, that should be enough to secure a bid without having to beat Syracuse in the BE quarters. A loss to RU, and they are toast.

HOUSTON (18-12, 82 rpi): Cougars killed themselves with losses to Marquette and UAB to end the season and will simply need to make the C-USA finals to get a bid now. Unlikely.

NEW MEXICO (22-6, 85 rpi): Lobos are benefiting from other bubble teams' failures to distinguish themselves. With 9 wins in their last 10, including a win over Utah, the Lobos are peaking at the right time. However, they are just 1-3 vs. rpi top 100 teams and their SOS is awful. Still, it's hard to ignore the gaudy win total and a respectable 10-4 Mountain West finish behind Utah. If the Lobos can make the MWC finals, they are in ... semis, they should be in ... lose in the quarters, and they will be sweating big time.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE (17-12, 90 rpi): A crushing last-second lost to Wake Forest prevented the Wolfpack from locking up an NCAA bid. Now at 7-9 in league, they will need to win their opening-round game vs. Clemson in the ACC tourney and then beat Wake in the quarters. Still doable, but short of that, it's NIT time for them.

GEORGETOWN (16-11, 94 rpi): The Hoyas lost 5 in a row to close the season, and that's all you need to know. With their rpi in freefall, the Hoyas also have zero nonconference wins to hang their hat on. Nothing short of a run to the Big East finals gets them in the Big Dance now.

VIRGINIA TECH (15-12, 120 rpi): The Hokies got a big win vs. Maryland to keep their slim hopes alive, but that loss to Clemson earlier in the week hurt a lot. The Hokies really only have that 8-8 conference mark, including a win over Duke, to hang their hat on. Their nonconference schedule was pathetic, and they lost to VMI and St. John's. Somehow, the Hokies wound up with the No. 4 seed in the ACC tourney and will meet Georgia Tech. If they beat GT, they will raise eyebrows, but they will still also have to beat UNC as well to lock up a bid.

At-large Pecking Order

OK, so keep in mind that if teams such as Pacific and Utah don't win their conference tourneys, they will take away bids from the at-large pool. Already, Southern Illinois lost in Missouri Valley tourney action, so that opens up a sure 2nd bid for that league. Right now, I'm looking at 27 or so teams fighting for 11 spots. Here is my pecking order for those spots:

1. Iowa State

2. Georgia Tech

3. DePaul

4. MAC team

5. Notre Dame

6. West Virginia

7. New Mexico

8. George Washington/Saint Joseph's

9. Maryland

10. Alabama-Birmingham

11. Iowa

Last 3 teams out: Indiana, MAC team, N.C. State

I believe if Vermont and Holy Cross do not win their conference tourneys, they have very good chances of bumping off those Nos. 10-11 teams for at-large spots. There is still a lot of basketball to play. The conference tourneys will decide a lot and will change the pecking order big time.

One last note ... in my opinion, this year's bubble is probably the least impressive in years. More teams are working their way off the bubble then onto the bubble and into the tournament. The Big East teams hurt themselves this weekend, but the conference still is in line for 7 bids if things break right. The most interesting teams to watch will be Vermont and Holy Cross in their tourney finals, as well as Iowa, Indiana, Maryland, UAB and the entire MAC.