After losing back-to-back home games for the first time since February 2019 and four of their last five games, Rutgers (17-11, 9-8) will limp into the Bryce Jordan Center and take on a red-hot Penn State (17-11, 8-9) team on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. (BTN).
Penn State has been nearly unbeatable at home this season and are 12-2 at the Bryce Jordan Center. The Nittany Lions have several big wins on their home floor this season, including double-digit wins over Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Nebraska.
Historically, Rutgers has not played well in State College under Steve Pikiell as the Scarlet Knights are just 2-4 at the Bryce Jordan Center. The last time Rutgers defeated Penn State in State College was during the 2018-19 season. However, Rutgers is one of the few teams in the country with multiple true road wins against the projected field, according to JBR Bracketology.
After a poor performance against Michigan this past Thursday, Rutgers must put the bad home defeat behind them and focus on beating Penn State on the road because if the Scarlet Knights can pull off the win on Sunday, they should be a lock for the NCAA Tournament. With a win over Penn State, Rutgers would tally another Q1 road win, a metric that impresses the NCAA Selection Committee.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR?
Right now, this Rutgers team has been playing fragile basketball and their confidence looks shattered. You could see the poor body language, lack of offensive team chemistry, and constant mistakes made against Michigan this past Thursday. It's time to put all of that behind, clear their heads and get back to playing Rutgers basketball.
If Rutgers wilts from early going in Sunday's game, it could be a long day for the Scarlet Knights. Penn State is going to want to take advantage from the jump, strike early and often.
Despite the offensive woes that were on display this past Thursday against Michigan, Rutgers still played good defense. They held the Wolverines to 15 points under their season average and were able to generate turnovers and steals.
The last time Penn State and Rutgers faced one another, the Scarlet Knights blew the doors off the Nittany Lions 65-45 by playing excellent defense. The Scarlet Knights forced the Nittany Lions to shoot 15.4% from deep and 33.3% overall from the field. Penn State is one of the nation's best three-point shooting teams, and they have been shooting off-the-charts at home this season. In their double-digit blowout wins over Illinois and Indiana, Penn State shot a combined 50% with 30 made three-pointers.
Rutgers is going to have to protect the perimeter at all times. This is where losing Mawot Mag certainly hurts because not only was he a great interior defender but he was an excellent defender on the perimeter. If Rutgers can force Penn State to shoot worse from beyond the arc and make less than 12 three-pointers in a game, the Scarlet Knights should be successful.
Caleb McConnell will likely receive the assignment of defending the most dangerous guard in the country, Jalen Pickett. Pickett is the catalyst on offense for the Nittany Lions, and he recently dumped 41 points on Illinois; 32 points on Minnesota; and 23 on Ohio State. Even though he is their big scorer Rutgers must be aware that he is great at kicking the ball out to the top of the key for Andrew Funk to drill a three-point shot.
Also, look for Rutgers to win the rebound game. Penn State is not a great offensive rebounding team, but Rutgers does not want to allow them to get any opportunities for second chance points.
Rutgers is going to have to not only rely on its defensive prowess to beat Penn State, but the Scarlet Knights are going to have to generate enough offense to actually score points, something this team has struggled with lately.
In their last five games, Rutgers is averaging a dreadful 58.8 points per game, which ranks near the bottom of Division I college basketball. Rutgers is currently averaging 68.8 points per game on the season and are rated the 166th for offensive efficiency, according KenPom.
Someone must step up offensively and get the Scarlet Knights rolling. If Penn State gets into a rhythm and starts hitting shots, it's going to be awfully difficult for Rutgers to catch up. Look for the Scarlet Knights to create plays for Cam Spencer to catch and shoot. Rutgers has to get the ball in his hands and give him as many chances to shoot as possible. It would be wise to try and create plays to give Oskar Palmquist the opportunity to get some open looks from deep. Palmquist is second on the team in shooting three-pointers at 37.5%.
Paul Mulcahy needs to insert himself in the game offensively as well. He has been very timid the last few games and hasn't been shooting the ball enough. If Rutgers can get Mulcahy involved offensively and allow him to to back down defenders in the post, the Scarlet Knights will be successful. When Mulcahy is at his best, Rutgers is at their best.
In their last five games, Rutgers has been putrid finishing around the rim and with layups. Rutgers must be able to convert it's layups and close shots.
The key to this game could also come from the free-throw line. For most of the season, Rutgers has been shooting pretty well from the free-throw line, but in their losses to Nebraska and Michigan, the Scarlet Knights have shot for a combined 44%. Close games come down to free-throws and Rutgers has to convert on most of their free-throw attempts to win this game.
Expect to see a heavy dose of the usual starters playing in this game with Derek Simpson and Oskar Palmquist playing a more significant role. Do not be surprised if you see Antwone Woofolk inserted into the game. Of note, he played 4 minutes in the Michigan game, but held his own against big man Hunter Dickinson by not allowing him to score a single point.
OUTLOOK....
Despite losing four of their last five games, Rutgers is still primed to earn an at-large berth to the 2023 NCAA Tournament. According to BracketMatrix.com, Rutgers remains in 100% in the field with average seed of 9. The Scarlet Knights are one of 18 teams with six or more wins against the at-large field.
If Rutgers can pick up the Q1 win tomorrow against Penn State, they should all but surely lock up a bid for the NCAA Tournament. With a win tomorrow, Rutgers would move to 6-6 against Q1 teams for the season and would pick up a fourth Q1 road win. A win for Rutgers would also keep them in the race in the Big Ten standings to boost their seed for the conference tournament. Rutgers is currently tied with Michigan State at 9-8 in the Big Ten standings and they are a half game behind the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Penn State is desperate for a big win to help boost their resume. Penn State right now is sitting on the outside looking into the tournament, and if the Nittany Lions beat Rutgers, it would surely put them into the Field of 68.
However, if Rutgers falls to Penn State, they will possibly have to win their last two games (3/2, at Minnesota, Q4; 3/5, vs Northwestern, Q2) to possibly earn a respectable single-digit seed and potentially avoid the bubble, pending results for other bubble teams across college basketball. One thing is certain, Rutgers must avoid a loss to Minnesota next Thursday. Minnesota is still hovering Q3/4 status, and a loss to the Golden Gophers would be resume damaging for the Scarlet Knights.
Bottom line, Rutgers just needs to win to eliminate any doubt.
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