As March draws nearer and nearer, the chances the Rutgers men’s basketball team has of making the NCAA Tournament gets smaller and smaller.
It’s must-win time for the Scarlet Knights (16-12, 10-8 Big Ten) following a loss at home to No. 13 Wisconsin on Saturday night.
From the analytic side of things, Rutgers is trending in the wrong direction and is now ranked 84th per the NET, 81st per Bart Torvik, and 76th per KenPom. Per Torvik’s Teamcast, the Scarlet Knights would have to win their next two games at Indiana on Wednesday and at home against Penn State on Sunday, and then keep the train going in the Big Ten Tournament in order to make the NCAA Tournament.
At this moment, Rutgers is clinging on to the No. 8 spot in the Big Ten standings which would give it one bye. It is essentially the third year in a row where Rutgers’ tournament hopes are coming down to the final games of the season.
“Win the next game, can’t really do anything else,” Harper Jr. said postgame. “We kind of control our own destiny and that’s what we have the pleasure of doing. It’s been that way the last two years and we’ve come through, so I have no doubt with the leadership on this team and this coaching staff that we’ll come up with a great game plan against Indiana and we’re gonna fight. It’s a hard place to play with Indiana. We have to play like we can. We’re fighting. After you lose a tough one like this to a really good team the mindset has to be just to go 1-0”
If Rutgers can muster victories in the next two games to round out the regular season, it would be hard for the tournament committee to keep a Big Ten team that is 18-12 overall and 12-8 in league competition before the conference tournament out of the Big Dance.
Indiana is another Quad 1 opportunity on the road while Penn State is a Quad 3 matchup.
A loss in either of the games would mean a trip to the National Invitational Tournament for the first time since 2006. Rutgers has played in the NIT 14 times. It got to the final in 2004.
In Saturday’s 66-61 loss to the Badgers, the top team in the Big Ten standings, Rutgers struggled in the first half, scoring just 24 points and making only 9-of-24 field goals. It was 0-for-6 on 3-pointers. The Scarlet Knights started attacking the basket more after the break and outscored Wisconsin in the second half, but Rutgers couldn’t quite get over the hump. Rutgers still didn’t shoot the ball well from deep or make its free throws, but its defense gave itself a chance.
An 8-0 run near the top of the second half cut what was once an 11-point Wisconsin lead down to three. Another 7-0 run 10 minutes later gave Rutgers a 51-50 advantage, but that was its only lead of the game and it was short lived. Geo Baker had a chance to tie the game on a 3-pointer with four seconds left but he missed.
“Wisconsin is, I think, 9-2 now on the road. One heck of a team,” Rutgers head coach Steve Pikiell said. “I thought we really fought. I’m proud of these guys. Ball wasn't going in during the first half, but I liked the looks. We fought back and gave ourselves a chance to win. Coach (Greg) Gard does a good job and they made a couple more plays than us down the stretch. We fought through a lot of adversity tonight and we're proud of our guys in the effort. It was disappointing but a lot of basketball left and we got to go on the road now.
“It's tough to beat any team twice in this league, and especially a ranked team. I find it hard to believe there's 12 better teams in the country. They play tough teams and have the record that they have. So you know, it's tough. It's tough to beat the team once and to beat the team twice is obviously very difficult, but you have to play great. That's why I’ve been telling these guys it's not just about showing up. You got to play great on both ends of the floor and that's what this league is all about. You got to play 40 minutes. We came a couple plays short. We’ll learn from it.”
Geo Baker scored a team-high 19 points on 9-of-19 shooting for Tutgers. He also had four assists. Harper Jr. added 15 points while Cliff Omoruyi posted nine points and 10 rebounds and Paul Mulcahy recorded seven points, five rebounds, and an assist. Caleb McConnell also scored six points and tallied six rebounds, Aundre Hyatt made a 3-pointer, and Mawot Mag made two free throws.
“They're a tough team to get down to but we fought back and credit to our guys. The job that Caleb did, I thought he did as good a job in both games against one of the leading scorers in the country. And Ron just continues to fight. So things weren't going our way tonight, but we figured out a way to claw back into the game and gave ourselves a chance to win and just a couple plays down stretch made the difference. This league is so competitive. I think this is the toughest stretch ever since I've been here. The teams are terrific. These teams are ranked and all that stuff and every game in our league comes down to possession or two. We all signed up for this league and this kind of basketball, and tonight was another one of those one two possession games.
“This league is tough. It's as good as it's been. And this stretch for us is epic. You know, six out of seven (opponents were ranked) in league play is unheard of. But these guys are always ready. And I love it. I said we wouldn't want it any other way. Rutgers, we grind and we embrace the challenges and that's what you got in this league.You got to be able to go on some win streaks because you're gonna have some losing streaks unfortunately in a conference like this.”
The Scarlet Knights have been in this position before. After an 18-1 home record two seasons ago, they knocked-off Purdue at Mackey Arena before COVID shut the world down. Last year, it got another big win in the finale at Minnesota.
Rutgers' backs are against the wall. Win and its win. Lose and the Scarlet Knights are out.
“Every game on the road in this league is tough and these guys know it. They’ve experienced it before. Their experience has put us in this place in the environment today. I think back to last year; every kid had an opportunity to go somewhere else and transfer and do all these things. These guys have stayed and look at what they've helped build. I’m so proud of them.We're looking forward to the last two games and these guys know it's never been easy. It's always hard. It's always hard when you play in a great league like this with great coaches and great players
“I like the way this team has been all year. They work and they prepare and they continue to fight and do what they need to do.”
Follow Chris Nalwasky on Twitter @ChrisNalwasky.
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