As the final buzzer sounded this past Saturday at The Prudential Center in Newark, players, coaches, and fans alike were left stunned by the outcome of the 122nd meeting between Rutgers and Princeton. In the end, it was Mitch Henderson and his Tigers that left the hardwood in a state of euphoria as Princeton knocked off Rutgers 83-82 for the second year in a row, giving themselves their 77th win in the storied Route 1 Rivalry, and handing Rutgers its fifth loss of the season.
Steve Pikiell's Scarlet Knights are now 7-5 overall with a NET Ranking of 91, zero signature wins, zero Quad 1 wins, and two Quad 3 losses.
Folks, I hate to break it to you but after what we've observed through the first two months of the season, this is not an NCAA Tournament team. Heck, this team doesn't look like it could even earn a berth in its own conference tournament.
What was labeled as one of the most highly anticipated seasons in Rutgers men's basketball history is beginning to implode before our very own eyes. After landing two of the top three high school recruits in the country and adding key rotational pieces in the transfer portal, Rutgers has not lived up the bill.
If you thought things couldn't get any worse for Pikiell and the Scarlet Knights, Rutgers is now projected to finish 14-17 (7-13), have a 0.2% chance of making it to the NCAA Tournament, and are favored in just four games for the remainder of the season, according to Bart Torvik's T-Rank.
The margin of error has become so slim, Rutgers cannot afford anymore hiccups and will be playing every game with their backs against the wall.
If Pikiell doesn't fix this mess in a hurry, the 2024-25 season could go down in flames as one of the biggest failures of his tenure at Rutgers.
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THE ISSUES....
Many of the issues plaguing Rutgers this season have mostly come on the defensive end as this year's team is one of the least efficient defensive teams of Pikiell's tenure in Piscataway. Rutgers currently ranks 125th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency per T-Rank and 107th nationally per KenPom. These numbers are a stark contrast to last year’s team, which finished 5th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Scarlet Knights are allowing their opponents to score 75.2 points per game (275th nationally), including their opponents shooting 51.0% within the arc (180th nationally). Rutgers has put up little resistance in defending the paint as their opponents have scored 459 total points, an average of 38.2 points in the paint per game. What’s more alarming is this past Saturday, Princeton shredded Rutgers with 44 points in the paint, only second to Ohio State for the most points in the paint against the Scarlet Knights this season.
Teams that scored the most points in the paint against Rutgers this season....
-- Ohio State: 46
-- Princeton: 44
-- Texas A&M: 42
-- Alabama: 40
-- Merrimack: 40
Not only has defending the paint been a major concern for Rutgers this season, but defending the arc has become a problem. Rutgers is allowing their opponents to shoot 33.6% from three-point range (245th nationally), and opponents have been able to sink nine or more made three-pointers in six games against the Scarlet Knights this season.
Teams that have scored nine or more three-pointers against Rutgers this season....
-- Notre Dame: 14
-- Monmouth: 13
-- St. Peter’s: 10
-- Alabama: 10
-- Penn State: 9
-- Princeton: 9
Rutgers inability to rebound the ball on the defensive end has become the team’s Achilles heel and has hurt them in so many ways. Rutgers has allowed their opponents to rebound nearly 32% of their missed shots leading to countless second chance points. In last Saturday’s contest, Rutgers allowed Princeton to grab 19 offensive rebounds, giving the Tigers the opportunity to score 23 second chance points.
Although Pikiell is a proponent of team defense, this year’s team has been unable to stay connected on the defensive end. Rutgers frontcourt has struggled mightily defending the pick and roll this season as Princeton and Seton Hall executed this play again and again throughout the games against the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers has also been very sluggish with its off-ball defensive rotations and have been unable to read when to appropriately provide help side defense.
In games decided within the last minute, Rutgers has lost four games due to their inability to register key stops or lack of pressure when they need to apply it the most. Last Saturday was the prime example of Rutgers unable to register a key stop or pressure Princeton in the closing seconds as Caden Pierce had his way with Jordan Derkack for an easy 5-foot jumper that led to the go ahead score to seal the victory.
Despite the defensive woes, this year’s team has become one of the best offensive units under Steve Pikiell as the Scarlet Knights are averaging 78.8 points per game (105th nationally) with an adjusted offensive efficiency that ranks 52nd nationally. This has been one of the upsides to this year’s team compared to last year’s team, which was one of the worst offensive teams in all of college basketball.
Rutgers has shot relatively well from close range as the Scarlet Knights are shooting 52.4% (146th nationally), 33.8% from three-point range (156th nationally), and are 72% from the free-throw line (178th nationally).
While the numbers are somewhat efficient, there are some issues on the offensive end. Rutgers have almost become too reliant on production from Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey to carry this team from game to game as the Scarlet Knights have not gotten enough out of their rotational players.
Dylan Harper, Emmanuel Ogbole, Lathan Sommerville have proven to be Rutgers most efficient shooters with close range two-pointers as they are shooting a combined 69%, but the rest of the supporting cast around them have not been as good at 44.6% combined.
While some of the rotational players have had a few bright moments on the offensive end this season, they haven’t been consistent enough. If Harper or Bailey have an off night, who is the third player Rutgers can rely on to provide that extra push?
Rutgers has lacked offensive creativity and ball movement needed to get the ball in the hands of some its best three-point shooters as the Scarlet Knights rank near the bottom of college basketball with just 19.8 three-point attempts per game (309th nationally) and only 6.7 made three-point shots per game (282nd nationally). There is absolutely no reason why Zach Martini (44.0%), PJ Hayes (43.3%), and Tyson Acuff (38.1%) took one combined three-point attempt in the game against Princeton last week.
During the halftime show of the Rutgers-Seton Hall game, FOX Sports analyst Casey Jacobson alluded, “Rutgers will struggle this season because they play too much ISO ball.” Pikiell teams have usually relied on playing a lot of ISO ball, and it’s the style of play on offense this season. Pikiell recruited guys like Martini and Hayes to Rutgers for their innate ability to shoot from deep but hasn’t utilized them to their strengths as both players have shot only a combined 55 three-point shots this season, which is not enough.
In their last five games, the Scarlet Knights have become increasingly careless with the basketball as their turnover rate has increased significantly. In last Saturday’s game against Princeton, Rutgers made critical errors during fast break situations with errant passes and poor ball security.
OUTLOOK....
At the conclusion of last Saturday’s heartbreaking loss to Princeton, Steve Pikiell said, “It’s a long season.. we got to get better. That’s the most important thing. And we will.”
Pikiell is certainly right about one thing, it’s a long season, but Rutgers is running out of time to fix the deficiencies. The Scarlet Knights are 12 games into the season and have already put themselves out of contention for the NCAA Tournament; however, they can get themselves back into the conversation with the schedule that lies ahead.
The margin of error going forward has become so slim, Rutgers can ill afford to lose any additional Quad 3 games. As of today, Rutgers has three Quad 3 landmines that remain on their schedule, including an upcoming trap game against a tricky non-conference opponent in Columbia, who has already upset Villanova earlier in the season.
Rutgers also has at least 12 Q1 and four Q2 games remaining on their schedule, providing them with plenty of opportunities to grab quality victories to impress the NCAA Tournament Committee.
Right now, with this team playing as poorly as they have, there is little confidence Pikiell and this team can get the job done; however, many faithful feel Rutgers still has a few runs left in them and can overcome the obstacles that lie ahead.
If the Scarlet Knights continue to play poor defense and remain disjointed on offense, there’s no way this team will survive the gauntlet of the Big Ten. Pikiell must find ways to get his team on the same page defensively and play connected basketball. It’s the only way Rutgers will be able to win games.
If Pikiell fails to fix the deficiencies, especially on the defensive end, it’s really going to be a long season for Rutgers.
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