Rutgers Basketball: Forecast and Recipe for Successful Season
The college basketball season is literally right around the corner, and Rutgers is preparing themselves for their neutral site affair against Princeton on November 6th. The highly anticipated neutral site matchup has the makings of a classic but it also will be a statement game for Rutgers, and if the Scarlet Knights win, it could set the tone for the rest of the season.
Let’s take a look at what Rutgers needs to do to have a successful 2023-24 season.
The Nucleus
There’s no question and no doubt, Cliff Omoruyi is the nucleus of this year’s Rutgers hoops team. Omoruyi enters this season as one of the top centers in all of college basketball, and for much of this season, he is going to have to carry this team on his shoulders. Last year, Omoruyi was one of the team’s leading scorers at 13.2 ppg but also was a force on the defensive side of the ball as he was one of the best shot blockers and rebounders in the Big Ten. It’s likely Omoruyi’s production and defensive output will increase this year, but he will be relied on heavily this season and will likely see the floor for a good 35 minutes or more per game.
There were two things last season that hurt Cliff:
1.) Turnovers under double-team pressure
2.) Poor shot selection or forcing shots around near the basket. He will need to do a better job in those situations this year to have a successful year. It will be absolutely paramount Rutgers keeps him healthy and he avoids injury. If Cliff were to go down with an injury this season, it could spell disaster for this team.
Freshmen Rising
Gavin Griffiths and Jamichael Davis are the newcomers to the team and they are going to have to acclimate quickly to the college basketball game. Griffiths, the highly-touted four-star and currently the highest rated Rutgers hoops recruit, known for his range and athleticism will have to step up at the wing and make shots in key moments. Expect Griffiths to live and die on the perimeter but also don’t be surprised to see the young fella create space and opportunities to make shots around the basket. In the exhibition against St. John’s, Griffiths got off to a slow start but finished the game with 14 points and was 3-of-8 from beyond the arc. He admitted at Rutgers media day two weeks ago his defense is his weakness but look for Pikiell to help him in that category throughout the year.
Jamichael Davis will have big shoes to fill after the departures of Paul Mulcahy and Cam Spencer. Things are looking up for the young man as he displayed speed, great vision, and defensive prowess in the recent exhibition game against St. John’s. Davis finished with a team high 16 points, 6 rebounds, and logged 34 minutes on the hardwood. He impressed NBA scouts in attendance and certainly will be an intricate piece in the backcourt going forward this season. Rutgers will need Davis to produce solid numbers offensively, but he will also need to limit turnovers and help dictate tempo. On the defensive end, Davis is a nightmare for opposing guards as he is known as a lockdown defender and can force opposing teams to commit turnovers and mistakes.
Fast Backcourt
During much of the Pikiell-era, Rutgers has played at much slower tempo but can this team break tradition and dictate tempo by turning on the burners and moving the ball quickly up-and-down the floor? Throughout the offseason we heard how Rutgers looks much faster and this year’s team plans to play faster. This year’s team is surely built to play faster with smaller guards on the floor compared to years past. Expect to see a heavy dose of the press from their opponents to try and slow them down. If Rutgers can get the ball in the open floor off turnovers and rebounds, expect the entire team to move quickly on the fast break for layups, dunks, and alley-oops. Rutgers must capitalize in these situations to win games.
Simpson & Woolfolk
Last season, we saw the potential Derek Simpson and Antwone Woolfolk had as young freshmen on the floor, and this season can these two take a big step forward? At times last year we saw Simpson’s mid-range shot struggle but it improved during the course of the season. One of Simpson’s greatest strengths is his ability to beat defenders off-the-dribble and attack the basket earning himself a score or a trip to the foul line. Simpson is expected to be one of the floor generals for this year’s team, so dictating tempo will be important. Simpson must continue his relentless attack to the basket, convert on mid-range jump shots, and tighten up his defense. He has all the workings to be an incredible player at Rutgers, and this year is his year to step into the spotlight.
Several analysts have noted Antwone Woolfolk might be the most improved player on this Rutgers roster in the offseason. Although Woolfolk didn’t play a whole lot of minutes last season, he showed glimpses of his defensive ability in big games against Michigan and Purdue. He did struggle last year with fouling too quickly once he hits the floor, so he will have to limit that this season. Woolkfolk will be expected to play a much larger role this year as he is expected to provide valuable minutes when Omoruyi comes to the bench for a breather. Don’t be surprised if you see Woolkfolk enter the game as a forward at the same time Omoruyi is on the floor.
Closing Out Games
It’s never easy being a Rutgers basketball fan and we’ve seen the struggles with Pikiell’s teams closing out games. Last year, Rutgers allowed Ohio State to hit a last second hail mary three-point shot at the buzzer to win as well as Jamison Battle’s last second heave to bring Rutgers to their knees as Minnesota pulled off a stunning comeback for the win. This year’s team is going to be in some tight contests and they are going to have to find ways to close out games. Down the stretch, they have to convert their free-throws and find themselves on the same page defensively. It will be critical to limit mistakes that could lead to a potential meltdown.
Closing Out the Regular Season
Just like closing out games, Rutgers is going to have to find ways to finish the end of the regular season on a strong note. Last season, Rutgers was humming along atop the Big Ten standings and were in the driver’s seat to clinch their third consecutive NCAA Tournament but as soon as glue-guy Mawot Mag went down in the game against Michigan State all hell broke loose and the Scarlet Knights only won of 2 of their last 8 games. It doesn’t get any easier this year as Rutgers closes out the regular season with home games against Maryland, Michigan and Ohio State and road trips to Nebraska and Wisconsin. Finishing worse than 3-2 in that stretch could be costly, especially if you lose to Nebraska or Michigan.
Avoid Any Catastrophic Losses
Credit Steve Pikiell for scheduling a little bit more of a difficult non-conference schedule this season. Rutgers opens up the season against their rival Princeton on a neutral floor in Trenton and also faces stiff competition on the road from Seton Hall, Wake Forest and Mississippi State in the OOC schedule. Those games could very well be toss-ups but for the rest of their non-conference schedule, they must avoid losing to any Quadrant 3 or 4 opponents on their home floor. If Rutgers truly wants to put themselves in position to make the NCAA Tournament this year, the Scarlet Knights must finish at least 9-2 with zero bad losses.
Stay Healthy
Rutgers picked up quality players from the transfer portal but each player came to this team with injuries. Noah Fernandes and Austin Williams have been plagued with injuries over the course of their collegiate careers, so keeping them healthy in the backcourt will be a big priority. Also, Mawot Mag is expected to return from his ACL injury at some point in November and keeping the defensive stalwart healthy will be top priority as well. Just like every season, Rutgers must avoid any major injuries and try to stay as healthy as possible.
Outlook
This might be one of Steve Pikiell’s deepest rosters to date, and it might be one of his most versatile rosters. Never before have we seen Pikiell play with smaller guards and a team capable of playing much faster while dictating tempo. Cliff Omoruyi and Derek Simpson will surely be the anchors on this team and at times may have to carry them on their shoulders to victory. Team chemistry is going to be important with a roster that has lost many of their foundational players. This season will be entertaining and it won’t be easy as Rutgers will face the Big Ten’s best throughout January. If Rutgers finishes November 6-0 and can get to 11-1 or 10-2 by the time they face Ohio State in January, this team will be in great position. If, somehow, they struggle early on and lose a few games, it could be an uphill battle to find their way into the NCAA Tournament. Rutgers must find a way to finish the regular season strong to gain momentum heading into their conference tournament. Rutgers fans, expect this team to hover the NCAA Tournament bubble throughout the duration of the season.
FINAL PREDICTION: 20-11 overall (9-2 non-conf, 11-9 Big Ten), 11-seed in NCAA Tournament
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