Rutgers Basketball: 2022-23 season a mixed bag of success and failure
The 2022-23 college basketball season for the Rutgers was full of high's and low's, including thrilling wins and disappointing losses, almost similar to the roller coaster ride of the 2021-22 season; however, in the end the Scarlet Knights failed to earn their third consecutive bid to the NCAA Tournament and finished the season with a disappointing loss to Hofstra in the First Round of the NIT Tournament.
In my early November season preview, I wrote what I thought were the keys to a successful season, including taking care of business early, avoiding bad losses, avoiding serious injuries, playing smart basketball from the jump, and using Jersey Mike's Arena to their advantage.
This year's team was only able to accomplish just one of the five keys: taking care of business early.
Despite only accomplishing just one of the five keys to the season, this year's team did have its fair share of successes on the hardwood. Let's take a look at this year's successes and failures.
THIS YEAR'S SUCCESS....
Rutgers finished 19-15 overall and 10-10 in the Big Ten Conference giving the Scarlet Knights their fourth consecutive winning season and fourth season in a row with double-digit conference wins. Although Rutgers was snubbed by the Selection Committee this year from earning what would have been their third consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance, the Scarlet Knights were awarded a postseason bid to the NIT Tournament.
TAKING CARE OF BUSINESS EARLY ON....
Unlike last year when Rutgers suffered three horrendous early season non-conference losses and struggled mightily to put away low-rated opponents, this year's team took care of business early and shut down all of their low-rated non-conference opponents. Rutgers also beat low-rated non-conference opponents by an average margin of 35 points.
ELITE DEFENSE....
There shouldn't have been too many question marks about Rutgers defensively entering this season as the Scarlet Knights returned defensive stalwarts Caleb McConnell, Mawot Mag, and Cliff Omoruyi. Rutgers already boasted one of the best defensive teams in the Big Ten under Steve Pikiell, and this year's team took an enormous leap nationally.
According to KenPom, the Scarlet Knights finished 6th nationally in defensive efficiency, a program best under Steve Pikiell. Rutgers had the 11th best scoring defense (61.1 points per game), 16th best field goal percentage defense (40.0%), and 33rd best 3-point shooting defense (30.8%) across all of college basketball. Rutgers also ranked 20th nationally in steals per game (8.7), 53rd nationally in turnovers forced per game (14.5), and 84th nationally in blocks per game (3.9).
Rutgers also ranked first defensively in several categories in the Big Ten, including scoring defense, field goal percentage defense, 3-point percentage defense, steals per game, and turnovers forced per game.
ROAD WINS....
If you have been a fan or follower of Rutgers basketball for years, then you know how much this program has struggled for years to win on the road. This year's team was able to garner four quality road wins this season with none other bigger than their epic January 2nd victory over previously ranked #1 Purdue, which was rated the best win in all of college basketball. The win over Purdue also marks the second year in a row Rutgers has defeated the Boilermakers when they were ranked #1 in the AP Poll Top 25. Lastly, Rutgers had its largest comeback since the 1996 season as the Scarlet Knights came from 19 points down to defeat Penn State 59-56 at the Bryce Jordan Center in Happy Valley.
A VERY GOOD TEAM WHEN HEALTHY....
When Rutgers was at full-strength this year and players were not injured, the Scarlet Knights were a very good basketball team. Rutgers rolled from mid-December to early January with six consecutive wins and also registered big wins over Purdue, Maryland, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State. Before the critical injury to Mawot Mag, Rutgers was 16-7 overall and sitting in second place at 8-4 in the Big Ten standings. Analysts and experts hailed Rutgers as one of the best teams in the Big Ten and even proclaimed the Scarlet Knights could possibly earn a five-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
CAM SPENCER'S EMERGENCE....
After nailing the game winning 3-point shot against previously ranked #1 Purdue in early January, the Big Ten quickly soon discovered who Cam Spencer was. The Loyola-Maryland transfer had an impressive first season with Rutgers and developed into a lethal weapon offensively for the Scarlet Knights. Spencer led Rutgers in scoring with 13.2 points per game, and became the team's best 3-point shooter (43.4%) and free-throw shooter (89.4%).
Spencer certainly had other big moments this season as he posted a season-high 23 points and hit the game-winning 3-point shot in an upset road win over Northwestern back in January. In mid-February, Spencer also willed Rutgers across the finish line when he drilled six 3-pointers and finished with 22 points to guide the Scarlet Knights to victory over Wisconsin, the second year in a row they were able to win in Madison. Not only has Spencer been an offensive weapon but he played excellent defense as he was second to Caleb McConnell with 2.0 steals per game.
SIMPSON GETS THE KEYS....
As Rutgers struggled mightily in the closing stretch of the regular season, Steve Pikiell was desperate to find an offensive spark for his team. Pikiell looked no further than to freshman Derek Simpson who was given the keys and carried this team on his shoulders to wins over Penn State and Michigan. Simpson showcased his ability to beat defenders off the dribble, fearlessly drive to the basket to score points, and drained mid-range pull up jumpers. Without a doubt, next season's team will be Derek Simpson's team.
WOOLFOLK'S DEVELOPMENT IN YEAR ONE....
Freshman Antwone Woolfolk saw limited action throughout the course of the season, but saw his minutes increase in the last several games of the season. When Woolfolk entered each game in the closing stretch of the season, he played cleaner basketball reducing silly mistakes and fouls, scored when the opportunity presented itself, and held his own against some of the best centers in the country. His continued development in the off-season will be critical going forward.
ACCOLADES....
Caleb McConnell was named a finalist for the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year award and also was named Co-Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year (shared with Northwestern's Chase Audige), an award he has now won two years in a row. McConnell was also unanimously named to the Big Ten's All-Defensive Team. Center Cliff Omoruyi was named to the Big Ten's All-Defensive Team, Second Team All-Big Ten (by Media Voting Panel), and Third Team All-Big Ten (by Big Ten coaches). Transfer/newcomer Cam Spencer and veteran Paul Mulcahy were both named Honorable Mention All-Big Ten.
RECRUITING WAS NEXT LEVEL GOOD....
Recruiting was at an all-time high this year as Pikiell and his staff were able to secure commits from highly touted players in the 2023 and 2024 recruiting classes.
The 2023 recruiting class, which rates 26th nationally according to Rivals.com, consists of five-star Gavin Griffiths, who committed to Rutgers this past summer, and three-stars Baye Ndongo and Jamichael Davis, who both committed to the Scarlet Knights during the course of the regular season. All three players will likely make an immediate impact for the 2023-24 season.
The 2024 recruiting class, which currently ranks fourth nationally according to Rivals.com, is shaping up to possibly be Pikiell's best recruiting class, maybe in Rutgers basketball history. Pikiell and his staff were able to secure commits from five-star forward Airious "Ace" Bailey and four-star Dellquan Warren during this past regular season. Rutgers is still on the hunt to recruit prized five-star Dylan Harper, who has narrowed down his schools of choice to Rutgers, Duke, Indiana, Kansas, and Auburn. Rutgers is also aggressively pursuing five-star Tyler Betsey, four-star Lathan Sommerville, four-star Donnie Freeman, four-star Kur Teng, and many more.
THIS YEAR'S FAILUES.....
As much as this team accomplished this season, Rutgers still failed to achieve their ultimate goal: earning a third consecutive NCAA Tournament bid. It's understandable that many feel Rutgers was snubbed and punished by the Selection Committee because of the Big Ten's recent failures in March over the last several years, but even so, the Scarlet Knights put themselves in a terrible position to have their fate decided by the Selection Committee with a disastrous collapse towards the end of the season.
Avoiding Serious Injuries
It's hard to fault anyone for injuries sustained by players, but this year's team played the entire year banged up. They were unable to get healthy even when the team was at full-strength. Paul Mulcahy was plagued with a serious shoulder injury early in the season and throughout the year. Caleb McConnell suffered multiple injuries throughout the season as well. Their presence and veteran leadership was greatly missed when they were absent in the losses to Temple and Miami in the non-conference portion of the schedule.
Things went from really good to bad quickly after glue guy Mawot Mag suffered a season ending ACL tear in the game against Michigan State at Madison Square Garden. It forced Steve Pikiell to ask players from his bench that normally don't see a lot of minutes on the floor to step up and take over a role that was coveted by Mag. The results were not pretty, and Rutgers finished the season 3-8.
Avoiding Bad Losses
The Selection Committee uses certain criteria to review a team's resume for the NCAA Tournament and this year they pointed out a big negative glaring mark on Rutgers' resume, which were the four damaging Quadrant 3 losses, the most of any team on the bubble this season. Of the four damaging losses, the two losses that probably hurt Rutgers the most was the 10 point home loss to Nebraska and the epic collapse in the final minute of the loss to Minnesota. Both losses occurred in the final eight games of the regular season. These were two opponents Rutgers should have defeated and it is likely it kept them from making the NCAA Tournament.
Lack of Depth on the Bench
As stated earlier, Steve Pikiell had to turn to his bench players to fill in for the injured Mawot Mag but the bench did not provide enough quality minutes whether it was to generate offense or play stout defense when a starter needed a breather or was in foul trouble. Pikiell found himself playing four starters for 30 or minutes per game as his players likely wore down during games.
Playing Smart Basketball from the Start and Sustaining Leads
Unlike last year's team, Rutgers didn't find themselves in too deep of a hole to climb out of and the Scarlet Knights actually started games fast to build themselves a nice cushion; however, after they would build themselves a decent lead, Rutgers all too often didn't keep their foot on the gas to knockout their opponents early. Rutgers would get away from what was working offensively and allowed their opponents to go on significant runs to get back into the game or take the lead.
Rutgers went through long stretches in games where they couldn't make a shot and it was ultimately their downfall. As was the case when Rutgers jumped out to a 13-3 lead on Michigan, holding the Wolverines to one made basket for nearly 9 minutes in the 1st half, and then the Scarlet Knights went cold for the final 5 minutes of the half allowing Michigan to take a 25-21 lead at halftime. Rutgers never recovered and Michigan triumphed to a 58-45 win.
Jersey Mike's Arena
Analysts and announcers typically praise Rutgers for having one of the most fierce and raucous environments in all of college basketball, but in the latter part of the season Jersey Mike's Arena was mortal. Rutgers dropped six home contests this year, including four losses by double-digits and a loss to their rival Seton Hall. The crowds at Jersey Mike's Arena have been superb all season long but this team failed to feed off the energy and capitalize against their opponents at home.
Offensive Woes
We know Rutgers had an elite defense, but they certainly did not have a good offense. As a matter of fact, their offense was ugly. The Scarlet Knights finished the season with 151st nationally in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Rutgers also rated in the sub-200s and sub-300s in several offensive categories including field goal percentage (43.1%), free-throw percentage (70%), 3-point percentage (32.1%), free-throws attempted per game (16.7), and scoring offense (68.4).
In the final stretch of the regular season, Rutgers struggled mightily from mid-range without Mawot Mag, arguably their best 2-point/mid-range shooter (56%).
Rutgers went 0-13 this season when their opponents scored more 65 or more points in a game, and that is not to discredit the defense, the Scarlet Knights just could not generate enough offense or sustain enough offense to win those games.
Free-Throw Shooting
Rutgers began the year shooting extremely well from the free-throw line but in their last 11 games of the season, the Scarlet Knights were dreadful from the charity stripe. Rutgers saved their worst performance from the free-throw line in a home loss to Michigan as the Scarlet Knights went 5-of-16 from the line for 31.3%. Also, missed free-throw shots in the closing stretches of games haunted this team throughout the season. If Rutgers had made clutch free-throws in the final minutes of several games the Scarlet Knights probably would have tallied victories over Ohio State, Minnesota, Hofstra, and Temple.
Terrible Non-Conference Schedule
After last year's team spent majority of the season trying to get over-the-hill to save their season after suffering three atrocious non-conference losses and spending significant time on the bubble, analysts and bracketologists felt Rutgers needed to slightly beef up their non-conference schedule by either scheduling one to two additional high-major opponents or participate in an multi-team event to present better opportunities to prevent them from landing on the bubble in an effort boost their tournament resume and to avoid disastrous resume killing losses.
Rutgers failed to do either of those options, and this year's team played the 339th non-conference strength of schedule, according to KenPom. To Rutgers no fault of their own, Pikiell did schedule Wake Forest but the Demon Deacons underachieved this year and finished as a Quadrant 3 opponent in the NET Rankings which did not impress the Selection Committee. Rutgers played one Quadrant 1 opponent, four Quadrant 3 opponents, and six Quadrant 4 opponents in the non-conference schedule.
Outlook...
.It was a fun season to watch but it was also very frustrating at times. The most frustration felt by fans was probably in the last 11 games of the season when Rutgers finished 3-8, and probably could have prevented a couple of those losses, which would have had the Scarlet Knights dancing for a third year in a row.
There will certainly be turnover on this roster. We have already seen reserves Jalen Miller and Oskar Palmquist hit the transfer portal and additional players on this team are likely to hit the transfer portal, so expect announcements to be made in the near foreseeable future.
Cliff Omoruyi has declared for the NBA Draft while maintaining his eligibility to return to Rutgers by not hiring an agent; however, TKR's Richie Schnyderite and others feel Omoruyi will return next season. Will Paul Mulcahy return next season? That is one question that has gone unanswered and it may be some time before we hear if the veteran guard is coming back. Caleb McConnell will be sorely missed by this team and he has exhausted all of his years of eligibility.
There is a lot to look forward to in the offseason if you are a Rutgers basketball fan. Most of it will focus on how Pikiell and his staff prepare for next season. Pikiell and his staff will assuredly have to address the glaring weaknesses and holes on the roster by bringing in quality players through the transfer portal.
A lot of effort will also concentrate on training and conditioning the incoming recruiting class with the sheer anticipation and the arrival of Gavin Griffiths, Baye Ndongo, and Jamichael Davis to The Banks.
Also, it will be intriguing if Rutgers changes their non-conference scheduling philosophy or if they stick to their same method of playing majority low-rated teams. Rutgers will play at Seton Hall and at Wake Forest next season. TKR also has shared Rutgers plans on playing a non-conference neutral site game (at Madison Square Garden) potentially against Gonzaga, Providence, or St. John's next season. Hopefully, Pikiell can work out an arrangement with one of those teams.
Whatever happens in the offseason for Rutgers, the program's trajectory is still on the rise and next year's team will still be highly competitive in a grueling Big Ten, and most importantly achieving a bid to the NCAA Tournament is not impossible.
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