Preview / Predicting Rutgers Wrestling in the 2024 NCAA Tournament
Rutgers Wrestling has sent eight wrestlers to the NCAA Tournament this year and as always we here at The Knight Report go weight by weight previewing and predicting how the brackets will end up.
125-POUNDS....
Top Seed: Braeden Davis (Penn State)
The Contenders: Luke Stanich (Lehigh), Drake Ayala (Iowa), Matt Ramos (Purdue)
Dark Horses: Jore Volk (Wyoming), Richard Figueroa (Arizona State), Patrick McKee (Minnesota), Anthony Noto (Lock Haven)
The Scarlet Knight: Dean Peterson (16 Seed)
The Skinny: I can promise you, there will not be this many contenders and dark horses at any other weight. This weight class may be unlike anything we’ve ever seen with the chaos that has ensured at 125-lbs this year. Over a half dozen wrestlers have been ranked number one at the weight, you would need a calculator to figure out the number of wrestlers that have been ranked inside the top 20, and former All-Americans are seeded outside of the top 10 in the bracket. The top two seeds at the weight are true freshmen, with the top seed being Penn State’s Braeden Davis, and Lehigh’s Luke Stanich is the second seed. Davis could see sixteenth seed, Dean Peterson, who took Davis to overtime in the regular season. Stanich does not have an easy path either, as he could see Michigan’s Michael DeAugustino, who was an All-American in 2022. Matt Ramos, who was the runner-up at this weight just a year ago, comes in at the four seed. Ramos could see either fifth-seeded Jore Volk of Wyoming, or Lock Haven’s Anthony Noto, the twelfth seed. Noto, who may not seem like a possible title contender if you based it off his seed, took fourth place at the weight in 2023, and was ranked number one in the country for a portion of the season. With all that being said, we have not even touched on Richard Figueroa (ASU) and Patrick McKee (Minn), who are on a collision course in the pre-quarters, as well. McKee is a two-time All-American and Figueroa was one of the several wrestlers that held the number one ranking earlier this year. In summary, good luck predicting this weight, but from start to finish, this bracket alone will be worth the price of admission.
The Scarlet Knight’s Path: From the get-go, Peterson does not have it easy. He will open up with Cornell’s Brett Ungar, who reached the bloodround in 2023. If Peterson can get by Ungar, which I have him winning, he will run into top-seed Braeden Davis. As previously mentioned, Peterson took Davis to sudden victory overtime in the dual meet. So, although it is not great to run into a one seed that early in the tournament, it certainly is a winnable match-up. If Peterson loses to Davis, it is going to give him a tough road map to the podium. If Peterson can upend Davis, obviously his path to the podium is much more favorable, with him needing just one win to become an All-American. I am, however, giving the advantage to Davis, sending Peterson into the wrestlebacks. Based on how I have the bracket playing out, Peterson will then see the loser of McKee/Figueroa, where I have McKee over Figueroa. I believe Figueroa will be the one who does knock Peterson out of the tournament in the round of 16. If Peterson can prove me wrong, he will see the loser of bout 343, which I have Ayala over Troy Spratley, with Spratley falling to the bloodround.
TOP EIGHT PREDICTION:
Davis (PSU)
Ayala (Iowa)
Camacho (NC State)
Ramos (Pur)
McKee (Minn)
Figueroa (ASU)
Stanich (Leh)
Noto (LH)
133-POUNDS....
Top Seed: Daton Fix (Oklahoma State)
The Contenders: Ryan Crookham (Lehigh), Kai Orine (NC State), Vito Arujau (Cornell)
Dark Horses: Dylan Shawver (Rutgers), Nasir Bailey (LR)
The Scarlet Knight: Dylan Shawver (4 Seed)
The Skinny: The big story at 133-lbs surrounds the sixth-seeded Vito Arujau, who is the defending national champion. There are several reports that Arujau is very banged up, with one source telling TKR it would not be surprising if Arujau cannot finish the tournament. If that is the case, that will take out a major title contender, and will open up a podium spot for someone else. Another big topic of conversation at 133-lbs is regarding Daton Fix’s quest for his first national title. Fix is a four-time All-American and a three-time runner-up. Fix comes in as the top seed, and should cruise to the semifinals. In the semis, Fix could see the winner of the Big Ten finals rematch, where Dylan Shawver (RU) and Dylan Ragusin (Mich) are destined to meet in the other quarterfinal on the top-half of the bracket. Ragusin will possibly have a tough pre-quarter with two-time All-American Sam Latona (VT) possibly crossing his path. Down low, Ryan Crookham (LEH) is the favorite to make it out of the bottom-side, with his two wins over the aforementioned Arujau solidifying Crookham as a legitimate title contender. Crookham will have some work to do though. Little Rock’s Nasir Bailey is the seventh seed, and should not be overlooked at this weight. A possible pre-quarter between Bailey and Penn State’s Aaron Nagao will be one of the most anticipated matches on day one. Former All-American, Kai Orine (NC State), is the third seed, and it will be interesting to see if he does end up seeing Vito Arujau in the quarterfinals. If he does, can a less than 100% Arujau defeat Orine? With the assumption that Arujau is not healthy, Fix is my pick to finally capture that elusive crown. However, if Vito wrestles the entire tournament and is able to avenge two prior losses to Crookham in the semifinals, I like Vito to repeat as the champion. My predictions were already done with the latter, so that is what I am going to stick to.
The Scarlet Knight's Path: Dylan Shawver has a great spot in the bracket. Of course, a potential rematch with Ragusin is a little scary, even despite the dominance Shawver showed just two weeks ago. Shawver, however, is wrestling the best he has in his career and is dangerous enough to pick off anyone. His left-legged attacks make him a tough match up, especially for right-legged leads. The one thing we know about Shawver is he is going to let it fly. There are no worries about Shawver holding anything back, and if he goes down, he is going to go down swinging. I do have him losing to Fix in the semi-finals, eventually taking fifth in the bracket. Shawver is undoubtedly Rutgers’ best shot at an All-American, and he is in a great spot to do so.
TOP EIGHT PREDICTION:
Arujau (Cornell)
Fix (Ok St)
Crookham (Lehigh)
Orine (NC State)
Shawver (Rutgers)
Ragusin (UM)
Bailey (Little Rock)
Frost (Iowa State)
149-POUNDS....
Top Seed: Ridge Lovett (Nebraska)
The Contenders: Kyle Parco (ASU), Jackson Arrington (NC State), Caleb Henson (VT)
Dark Horses: Austin Gomez (Michigan)
The Scarlet Knight: Michael Cetta (33 Seed)
The Skinny: A lot of people may believe Ridge Lovett is a heavy favorite at this weight, but I feel there are four wrestlers capable of taking home the title. Lovett, deservingly so, is the favorite and the top seed. Lovett has one loss on the year, which came at the hands of Kyle Parco. The win over Lovett helped the 21 – 3 Parco capture the two seed, where he could have a tough quarter-final with Penn State’s Tyler Kasak (7th seed). If Parco reaches the semi-finals, I do not have him seeing the three seed, Jackson Arrington (NC State), but rather the sixth-seeded Austin Gomez. Gomez wrestled an abbreviated schedule this season, holding a 9 – 2 record coming into the national tournament. Gomez will be looking to approve upon his 4th place finish at the 2023 tournament, and is my pick to make the finals out of the bottom side. Thanks to a controversial finish at the ACC Tournament, Caleb Henson (VT) sits at the three seed, behind Arrington, who won the conference tournament over Henson. Aside from the loss to Arrington, Henson’s only other loss on the season is a 4 – 3 decision to Ridge Lovett, who he could meet in the semis.
The Scarlet Knight's Path: The fact Michael Cetta started this year on the bench and is finishing the season at the national tournament is truly something special. Cetta came up big in his role at 149-lbs, and exceeded all expectations. Unfortunately for Cetta, who comes in as the last seed, his podium chances are unlikely. With his spot in the bracket, there is just too much work that has to be done. Despite the outcome this weekend, this was a heck of a year for Cetta, and this kid has a bright future to build upon after this season.
TOP EIGHT PREDICTION:
Lovett (NEB)
Gomez (MICH)
Parco (ASU)
Henson (VT)
Arrington (NCST)
Siwderski (ISU)
Kasak (PSU)
Watters (WVU)
174-POUNDS....
Top Seed: Mehki Lewis (Virginia Tech)
The Contenders: Carter Starocci (Penn State), Shane Griffith (Michigan), Cade Devos (South Dakota State)
Dark Horses: Edmond Ruth (Illinois), Rocco Welsh (Ohio State)
The Scarlet Knight: Jackson Turley (16 Seed)
The Skinny: I am not going to claim to be a seeding expert, but I know a jacked up bracket when I see it. The 174-lb weight class features not one, not two, but THREE former National Champions on the top half of the bracket. Meaning, the bottom-half must be loaded too, right? Not exactly. Only one returning All-American sits on the bottom-half of the bracket. The biggest complaint in regards to the seeding of this weight is due to three-time national champion, Carter Starocci, being seeded ninth. Of course, there is a lot of speculation about how healthy Starocci is coming into the tournament. Starroci did not wrestle in the Big Ten tournament due to injury, taking medical forfeit losses. Obviously, the seeding committee came down harshly on Starocci’s medical forfeits, pairing him up in a potential quarter-final with former national champion, and one seed, Mekhi Lewis. The winner of the potential quarter-final match of national champions could see the third national champion at the weight, Shane Griffith (Mich), in the semi-finals. However, there are some concerns regarding Griffith’s status, as he suffered a leg injury at the Big Ten tournament. Although the bottom-half of the bracket does not have the accolades the top-half does, it will be very interesting to see who comes out of this part of the bracket. Cade Devos is the second seed, who enters the tournament with a 23 – 1 record. His biggest tests down low are Big Ten Champion, Edmond Ruth, and Ohio State’s Rocco Welsh. Ruth the three seed, and Welsh the sixth seed, could run into each other in the quarter-final. Due to the health status of two major contenders, this is a tough weight to predict. I feel more confident in Starroci than the reports coming out on Griffith. I like Starroci to win it all, whereas I have Griffith losing in the quarter-finals. Down low, I like Ruth to defeat Welsh in the quarters and then Devos in the semis, eventually losing to Starocci in the finals.
The Scarlet Knight's Path: Jackson Turley comes in at the 16th seed, lining up to face Mekhi Lewis in the pre-quarters. Turley has never beaten Lewis, and I do not see that changing here. In the wrestlebacks, Turley’s path to the bloodround is certainly doable, but I see him running into Rocco Welsh for a place-or-go-home match. There is no denying that Turley is a gamer and he has the big move ability to win any match. It would not surprise me to see Turley go 0 – 2, and it would be equally surprising to see him get hot and make a run at the podium. I do think Turley makes the round of 12, but I do think Rocco Welsh is a tall order for him, stylistically speaking. Unfortunately, I do not believe Turley makes the podium, but he has proven me wrong in the past.
TOP EIGHT PREDICTION:
Starroci (PSU)
Ruth (ILL)
Devos (SDSU)
Kennedy (IOWA)
Lewis (VT)
Welsh (OSU)
Griffith (UM)
Wolak (COL)
184-POUNDS....
Top Seed: Parker Keckeisen (Northern Iowa)
The Contenders: Isaiah Salazar (Minnesota), Dustin Plott (Oklahoma State), Trey Munoz (Oregon State)
Dark Horses: Lenny Pinto (Nebraska), Bernie Truax (Penn State)
The Scarlet Knight: Brian Soldano (21 Seed)
The Skinny: There are a few weight classes where you can almost guarantee a champion, but most people probably would not pick 184-lbs as that weight class. However, Parker Keckeisen is almost a lock to make the final at this weight, if not, win it all. Keckeisen has been dominant all year, and is undoubtedly the favorite to bring home the crown. Trey Munoz (ORST) and Lenny Pinto (NEB) are Keckeisen’s two biggest hurdles on the top side. Munoz and Pinto could end up meeting in the quarterfinal round, with the winner meeting Keckeisen in the semis. Down low is an interesting mix, which features former All-Americans, proven veterans, and a very tough freshman. A trio of former podium finishers could end up in the quarterfinal, where Dustin Plott (OKST) and Chris Foca (COR) are on track to meet in the prequarters. The three-time All-American from Penn State, Bernie Truax, will likely meet the winner of Plott/Foca in the quarter-finals. Isaiah Salazar (MINN), the Big Ten champion, is likely the favorite to come out of the bottom side. However, freshman phenom, TJ Stewart (VT) stands in his way in the quarters. Overall, there is a ton of talent in this bracket, Keckeisen just seems to be head and shoulders above the rest. I have him as a heavy favorite, taking out Salazar in the finals.
The Scarlet Knight's Path: Brian Soldano had an up and down year, bringing a 15 – 10 record to the big dance. I have said it a million times, but Soldano’s style has been his biggest asset and biggest detriment, all in one. He has pulled some big wins out of his back pocket, but he has also lost due to his home run style. Soldano opens up with Jaden Bullock (MICH), who has defeated Soldano twice this year. I do have Bullock winning again, dropping Soldano down to the wrestlebacks early in the tournament. With having to win four in a row from that point, a podium appearance is unlikely for Soldano this year. It’s not that I think Soldano is not an All-American talent. He is undoubtedly a special talent, who can wrestle very well at times. I do believe, though, until he becomes more fundamentally sound, he is going to have a tough time achieving All-American status.
TOP EIGHT PREDICTION:
Keckeisen (UNI)
Salazar (MINN)
Plott (OKST)
Truax (PSU)
Pinto (NEB)
Munoz (ORST)
Stewart (VT)
Berge (SDSU)
197-POUNDS....
Top Seed: Aaron Brooks (Penn State)
The Contenders: Trent Hilday (NC State)
Dark Horses: This is a two horse race.
The Scarlet Knight: John Poznanski (14 Seed)
The Skinny: There is no denying who the favorite is at 184-lbs, as Aaron Brooks comes in with three national titles, seeking his fourth career championship. The only thing standing between Brooks and history is NC State’s Trent Hidlay, who is the second seed at the weight. Unfortunately, there is not much more to it at this weight than the clash of those two titans meeting in the finals. Yes, there is quite a bit of talent at the weight. Several returning All-Americans are in this bracket, including third seeded Tanner Sloan (SDSU), the four seed Michael Beard (LEH), the fifth seed Jacob Cardenas (CORN), the sixth seed Lou DePrez (BING), the eighth seeded Stephen Buchanan (OU), and fourteenth seed John Poznanski (RU). Given that amount of talent, you would think this is a more intriguing weight. Despite the depth in the weight class, those six wrestlers, along with the rest of this weight, will be vying for 3rd through 8th. Brooks is arguably the pound-for-pound best wrestler in college wrestling. Hidlay, who does not get the recognition he deserves due to Brooks being in the weight class, could also be considered as one of the best overall wrestlers in the sport. Hidlay dropped a 6 – 3 match to Brooks at last years tournament, which was the closest contest Brooks has had in the last two years. This season, Brooks is 17 – 0 with a 94% bonus rate. Hilday, on the other hand, is 24 – 0 with an 83% bonus rate. Although Hilday has been consistently great, Brooks is a generational talent. I believe he takes care of Hidlay, winning an impressive fourth NCAA Title.
The Scarlet Knight's Path: Poznanski has a winnable match up against UNI’s Wyatt Voelker, but he will run into Tanner Sloan if he gets past Voelker. That is not a great draw for the former All-American, and will likely send him to the backside of the bracket. In the wrestlebacks, Poz will likely see Maryland’s Jaxon Smith. Poz dropped a sudden victory match to Smith in the Big Ten tournament. So, getting past Smith is not an impossible task. If he is able to defeat Smith, Poz will see whoever loses to Brooks in the quarterfinal. My pick for that is Stephen Buchanan, which is not the worst scenario for Poz. Although I think that is one of the more favorable scenarios, I do believe Buchanan wins that match. Anything outside of the top 16 would be considered a bad tournament for Poz, and although I do not think he makes the podium, it is within his reach.
TOP EIGHT PREDICTION:
Brooks (PSU)
Hidlay (NCST)
Beard (LEH)
Sloan (SDSU)
DePerez (BING)
Caedenas (COR)
Glazier (IOWA)
Buchanan (OU)
HEAVYWEIGHT....
Top Seed: Greg Kerkvliet (Penn State)
The Contenders: Yonger Bastida (Iowa State), Wyatt Hendrickson (Air Force)
Dark Horses: Cohlton Schultz (Arizona State)
The Scarlet Knight: Yara Slavikouski (13 seed)
The Skinny: Every year it seems as if the heavyweight class has a virtual lock. It went from Tony Nelson, to Nick Gwiazdowski, to Kyle Snyder, then Gable Steveson. Now the weight class of big boys is controlled by Penn State’s Greg Kerkvliet. You could make the case Kerkvliet is the most improved wrestler in college wrestling. Yes, Kerkvliet did take second at the weight last year, so it is not surprising he is the front runner. However, Kerkvliet is 15 – 0 with a 73% bonus rate on the year. There is, however, one test that Kerkvliet has not seen this season, which has drawn a lot of attention to this bracket. The two seed, Yonger Bastida (ISU), moved up from 197 to 285, and has been a force to be reckon with. Basitda is an impressive 24 – 0, and is coming off a dominant Big 12 tournament where he defeated Wyatt Hendrickson (AF), who took 3rd at 285 last season. Basitda and Hendrickson are on a collision course for the semis, so a very intriguing rematch looms for Friday night to see who will meet Kerkvliet in the finals. Cohlton Schultz (ASU), sits at the four seed, and is a former national finalist who could be Kerkvliet’s toughest test up top. Schultz will have to get past a very tough Nathan Taylor (LEH) in the quarterfinals though. One of the Thursday night matches to keep an eye on is between Nick Feldman (OSU) and Owen Trephan (NCST). Trephan downed Feldman earlier this year, but Feldman has turned a corner in the second half of the season. The winner of that match runs into Kerkvliet, so a probable loss looms ahead for the winner. However, the winner of Trephan/Feldman is in a much better position to land on the podium, as opposed to the loser. As intrigued as I am to see a Kerkvliet/Basitda final, I think Kerkvliet is just too much for Basitda, and I see him winning a one sided decision for his first national title.
The Scarlet Knight's Path: Yara Slavikouski is the second highest seed Scarlet Knight, after Dylan Shawver. Yara will likely have a tough second round match up with Cohlton Schultz, which I have Schultz winning. I do believe Yara is the better wrestler, but Schultz is a much larger man than Yara and I see that being difficult for him to overcome. I do like Yara’s path in the wrestlebacks, and have him getting to the bloodround against Lucas Davison (MICH). Davison has defeated Yara twice this year, so the odds of making the podium are not great for Yara. However, if he can get to that round of 12, anything can happen in the Friday night session. I am not counting Yara out completely, but I am giving the edge to Davison.
TOP EIGHT PREDICTION:
Kerkvliet (PSU)
Bastida (ISU)
Hendrickson (AF)
Elam (MIZZOU)
Feldman (tOSU)
Taylor (LEH)
Schultz (ASU)
Davison (MICH)
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