Before we dive into this week's Inside The Banks, I'd like to announce that unfortunately, it will be my last with The Knight Report.
As many of you know, I started in this business by covering Ohio State recruiting, and since 2008 have done that for a variety of sites, including here at Rivals for a brief stint, which brought me to TKR about four years ago.
Since leaving Rivals on the OSU side of things, I have been writing for an independent site that covers the Buckeyes. Due to circumstances out of my control, the terms of my contract there were being changed, and I decided to pursue other opportunities, ultimately landing at On3 and their Ohio State site.
While I tried to keep my gig here at TKR, unfortunately (and understandably), the leadership at On3 did not feel comfortable with me writing for a competing network. This is my fourth week over there and while I did get them to agree to let me finish out this month over here, unfortunately, October 31st will be my last day with this site.
I know I am not a "Rutgers man" in the sense many of you are (grad, lifelong fan, etc.), but I grew up in New Jersey my entire life and reside here to this day. I have attended RU games since I was a little kid and have followed the team back in the dark days of the 90's all the way to the present Schiano 2.0 Era. Even though I am a two-time grad of Ohio State, I have always rooted for Rutgers and enjoyed supporting the program in a variety of ways.
That said, it has been an absolute pleasure covering this team and recruiting beat for the last four years or so. I can't thank Richie enough for the opportunity he has given me, and I can't tell you how great it has been to work with him, as well as the rest of the staff that has been here during my tenure. I also want to say thank you to the Rutgers' coaches, support staff, etc. that so graciously welcomed me to this beat---I greatly value and appreciate the connections we have made. Finally, I can't thank you all, the fans and readers, enough. While I'm sure some of us have gone at it a few times via healthy arguments on the board, I am not here if not for you. This is an incredible community and I am so grateful to have been a part of it the last four years. I can't thank you enough for welcoming me with open arms.
With all that said, this is my last edition of Inside The Banks, where I share some insights as to how I think Rutgers can pull off what many think is unthinkable, and beat Ohio State this coming Saturday.
HOW RUTGERS CAN BEAT OHIO STATE....
Painting The Picture
Ohio State enters this game at 8-0 and as 18.5-point favorites over the Scarlet Knights. The Buckeyes have the top-ranked B1G passing offense (15th nationally) and have an elite defense, ranking 4th nationally in total defense, 16th nationally in rushing defense, 4th nationally in pass defense, 1st nationally in passing efficiency defense, 9th nationally in fewest first downs allowed, 19th nationally in red zone defense, and are 2nd nationally in scoring defense (10 ppg).
On paper, this appears to look like another blowout that we've been accustomed to, but this Ohio State team is not the juggernaut that has rolled into Piscataway in years past. While the defense has been elevated to a new level, the offense has sputtered through its first 8 games and checks in at 40th nationally, a number that is very foreign to Ryan Day and his staff.
The Buckeyes have been breaking in a number of new players on the offensive side of the ball, including at quarterback, left tackle, right tackle, and center. None of the new starters at those spots (Kyle McCord, Josh Simmons, Josh Fryar, Carson Hinzman respectively) have developed to where OSU has hoped they'd be entering week nine of the season.
They have also dealt with a variety of key injuries, including to starting tailback TreVeyon Henderson and starting receiver (and expected first round draft choice) Emeka Egbuka, both of whom have missed multiple games of late. McCord sprained an ankle against Notre Dame that has had him playing at less than 100-percent, and he appeared to have re-aggravated that injury on Saturday night against Wisconsin. And, not as critical, but some minor injuries, like to the back-up tight ends, have certainly impacted game plans this year, with OSU not being able to get into certain formations (i.e. 12 personnel) as much as they'd like to.
All of those are not excuses, they are reality of what the Buckeyes have been dealing with, somewhat halting the development on that side of the ball. Henderson came back last week, though, and indications are Egbuka could start to get eased back into action this weekend in a ramp up to the Michigan game. The offense will no doubt be better when those two are in the field and the defense has to account for more, but regardless of if they're in the lineup or not, the fact is this Ohio State offense is very manageable for opposing defenses, especially a good one like Rutgers. A big reason for that is because the offensive line play has been "average at best" and the quarterback play has been inconsistent within games, despite the stats being fairly good overall.
On the flip side, the defense has been absolutely lights out. There was a concerted effort to adjust defensive coordinator Jim Knowles' scheme to be a bit less aggressive, as the Buckeyes gave up too many "big plays" last year. The key has been finding that middle ground where this defense is still disruptive, but isn't giving up big chunk plays on a consistent basis when they "guess wrong" re: bringing the pressure. That has worked out very well thus far, and while turnover and sack numbers aren't as high as you'd like, the effectiveness of the unit has been significantly improved.
All of that said, this spread is 18.5 and not 21, 24, or 28 for a reason. Rutgers is a long shot to win this game, but they can win this game, and I am going to tell you how.
When Rutgers Is On Defense
If I am Greg Schiano and Joe Harasymiak, the first thing I am doing is being stout against the run. The Buckeyes are only averaging about 133 yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry on the ground, so most teams have been able to slow the rushing attack down, but with TreVeyon Henderson back, the task is a bit taller than when he was out. Making Ohio State lose faith in the run game early, forcing them to be primarily a passing team is the first key to RU having a shot to win this game, and I do believe the Scarlet Knights' defensive front can win enough battles against the OSU offensive line to make that happen.
Second, I would get creative with pressures to present exotic looks and blitzes to confuse the Buckeyes' offensive line and put McCord under siege throughout the afternoon. The line, as I mentioned, has been faulty all season, and even subpar units have been able to get pressure with four, and especially when bringing extra men. McCord has committed multiple grounding penalties, taken sacks, and has fumbled a number of balls when facing pressure, as the line hasn't given him time at times and/or he's just not processing where the open man is fast enough. He's also going to play on an injured ankle which will greatly impact his effectiveness, in my opinion. The key for Rutgers will be finding the balance of not over-exposing themselves, something that Purdue did often a few weeks back. The Boilermakers were successful at times in blitzing McCord, but they also didn't get home enough where it came back to bite them, allowing some big plays and points on the board.
Finally, I would watch the film against Notre Dame to find out how to make sure Marvin Harrison Jr. does not beat you. If I am Rutgers, my goal is to take Harrison Jr. out of the game by bracketing him and forcing McCord to push the ball elsewhere on a consistent basis. If I lose the game, I would rather lose it knowing that other people besides number 18, who might just be the best player in college football, beat me.
When Rutgers Is On Offense
This is going to be the key to the game for me. No matter how good the RU defense is, if they have to continuously be on the field because the Rutgers offense cannot get first downs, they will eventually wear down.
With that said, Rutgers has to be able to control the ball. Even in games where the score wasn't close, such as the OSU opener against Indiana (23-3 Buckeyes), the opponent was at least able to keep things within reach for a while by virtually playing keepaway. Oftentimes, that was achieved by running the ball well and converting on third downs to extend drives. With OSU not playing as aggressive to avoid giving up the big plays, it's almost a "bend but don't break" approach, which could and has allowed inferior opponents to sustain drives, even if they result in 0 points. Rutgers' best defense could be a good offense in this one, in the sense that playing keep away means OSU isn't scoring points, and the game is being shortened thanks to ball control and the new clock rules.
Second, Gavin Wimsatt is going to have to throw the ball. You know Ohio State is going to concentrate on stopping the run and making Wimsatt beat them with their arm, something he has not consistently been able to do this year, especially against top-notch opponents. Wimsatt is not going to have to do it all game, but he is going to have to make some plays over the top in this one to possibly steal a score or two, or at minimum, keep the Silver Bullets honest. I personally would target Davison Igbinosun in the passing game, as while he's been good overall for the Buckeyes, he has a tendency to get a bit grabby in one-on-one coverage. And while the safeties have been excellent this year, I still would test Josh Proctor, Lathan Ransom (if he plays), and Sonny Styles on some deep balls, as it seems they haven't had to contest too many this year.
Third, when in the red-zone or OSU territory, the Knights need to score 7 not 3. Kicking field goals is not the way to beat a team like Ohio State in this situation. If RU can convert in opponent's territory and keep pace with OSU/put pressure on them by scoring touchdowns and not field goals, they have a chance at the upset.
Finally, while this is obvious, Rutgers needs to play a clean game. That doesn't just mean turnovers, but also means penalties.
When Rutgers Is On Special Teams
I don't know a ton about the RU special units, honestly, but I wanted to write this section to say that I think the Knights can take advantage of an OSU unit that has made at least one special teams error in every game they have played thus far. There's been bad long snaps on punts, kickoffs out of bounds, missed tackles on coverage, opponent punts bouncing off legs, bad penalties, and more.
To date, these errors have not really cost the Buckeyes anything, but I do think if they don't clean them up that they will at some point. Could that week be this week? I would put pressure on the Buckeyes' special teams however I could to try and force some of those errors and then take advantage of them the best I could.
Knowing Greg Schiano, I am sure he will pull out a few fakes, trick plays, etc. on special teams to give his team an edge as well.
What I Expect
Since I won't be here for the game predictions, I wanted to share a bit about what I expect on Saturday afternoon. I still have some digging into this one to do, but I have a gut feel, knowing both teams, about how this could play out.
I think this is going to be everything Rutgers fans want it to be. I expect OSU to come out sluggish in a noon kick on the road in a game where they think they could roll over an inferior opponent. I think that is going to backfire on them tremendously, and this game is going to be a battle.
I think RU will struggle to do much on offense, but will be able to milk the clock, play good defense, and keep things close, making this a dog fight entering the fourth. I see a score along the lines of maybe something like 10-6 at half and 17-13 entering the last frame.
At that point, though, I think Ohio State will dig down deep and find enough to come out on top. I have the Bucks scoring 10 points in the final quarter, while blanking Rutgers to escape Piscataway with a 27-13 win.
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