Analyzing and predicting Rutgers football's 2020 campaign
Fans are anxiously waiting the start of Greg Schiano's second stint at Rutgers, no matter if they're allowed inside the stadiums to watch or not. The Scarlet Knights' third known schedule looks to be the final one and on Oct. 24, they will play Michigan State on the road to kick things off.
With a month to go until the shortened, peculiar season thanks to the coronavirus, TKR predicts the win-loss record for Rutgers. Things could change weekly depending on injuries, opt-ins/opt-outs, and positive cases that will force the players to miss significant time.
Week 1 - Oct. 24: at Michigan State
Rutgers and Michigan State have been locked in a recruiting war of late for New Jersey products, and this first game will be an interesting one with new coaching staffs on both sides. Back on Sept. 4, 2004, Schiano's first big win came against the Spartans as well, 19-14, in Piscataway. That only brings more intrigue. Rutgers has been competitive with Michigan State in the past since joining the Big Ten and the Scarlet Knights have improved in a short amount of time. Rutgers breaks a 21-game losing streak within the league in this one.
ESPN FPI projection: 39.9 percent chance to win
TKR's prediction: Win, 1-0
Week 2 - Oct. 31: vs. Indiana
Rutgers has struggled with the Hoosiers of late, getting blown away in 2019 and 2017. It hasn't won since 2015. Indiana has a chance to be very good this year, and it is a team Rutgers needs to beat going forward if it wants to move up in the Big Ten rankings. There's a reason why Indiana is one of Rutgers' games it could very well struggle in.
ESPN FPI projection: 18.6 percent chance to win
TKR's prediction: Loss, 1-1
Week 3 - Nov. 7: at Ohio State
By this point, Rutgers should hope it isn't bitten by the injury bug already in addition to the positive COVID-19 tests. Justin Fields and the Buckeyes look to go 9-0 and make the College Football Playoff. This one could be ugly, but maybe Ryan Day takes it somewhat easy on his former coaching colleague at Ohio State. There's not much to say about this contest.
ESPN FPI projection: 1.6 percent chance to win
TKR's prediction: Loss, 1-2
Week 4 - Nov. 14: vs. Illinois
This is a winnable game, but the Illini will come out on top. Lovie Smith has improved the program in recent seasons, but this one of the more even footing games. Rutgers last defeated Illinois in 2017 and Smith and his beard is 3-1 against the Scarlet Knights and he took over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after Schiano was let go.
ESPN FPI projection: 41.6 percent chance to win
TKR's prediction: Loss, 1-3
Week 5 - Nov. 21: vs. Michigan
Transfer Michael Dwumfour, a favorite to start at defensive tackle, might have some info on the Wolverines. He also might be well motivated to play well against his former team. However, there is no "I" in team and he can't do it alone and Michigan remains a formidable foe. The Wolverines play Wisconsin the week before and Penn State after Rutgers, so maybe they look past the Scarlet Knights and sleepwalk into SHI Stadium. Nonetheless, don't expect a Rutgers win as the rebuild continues.
ESPN FPI projection: 16.4 percent chance to win
TKR's prediction: Loss, 1-4
Week 6 - Nov. 28: at Purdue
Both teams are circling this date as a potential victory, but the win would mean more to Schiano and co. As of now, Purdue star wide receiver Rondale Moore has opted out, but there's a chance the 2018 AP First Team All-American and Paul Hornung Award recipient could return and play. But by now, this will be Schiano's team and the offense and defense should have its identity.
ESPN FPI projection: 31.1 percent chance to win
TKR's prediction: Win, 2-4
Week 7 - Dec. 5: vs. Penn State
If Rutgers were to beat Penn State and lose every other game, it would still be a successfull season. Nobody is expecting much of the Scarlet Knights anyways, and beating a "rival" would be a huge deal. Schiano, of course, has ties to the program having coached there prior. Rutgers has been competitive with the Nittany Lions, but there have been some wide margin contests in between. Expect a closer one, especially if Micah Parsons remains out.
ESPN FPI projection: 6.2 percent chance to win
TKR's prediction: Loss, 2-5
Week 8 - Dec. 12: at Maryland
The last few games with the Terrapins haven't been pretty for Rutgers. But now Rutgers has been coaches and that makes all the difference, especially when the players believe. The Terps were poor on defense last season (except against Rutgers), but this is a game where Rutgers could 'chop" its way to a victory. This also should be the final game every season. A trophy name idea could be "The I95 Trophy". That's pretty bland, but what else you got?
ESPN FPI projection: N/A
TKR's prediction: Loss, 2-6
Week 9 - Dec. 19: TBA (Northwestern)
Rutgers might play Northwestern here, but nobody knows at this point, obviously, as it this game will be a crossover based on order of standings. It's been said that the Big Ten doesn't want any rematches, so that means likely no Rutgers-Ilinois or Rutgers-Purdue for a second time. Northwestern seems like a good bet and it should be competitive. The Scarlet Knights should have beaten the Wildcats in 2018. They didn't, but will this season, should they play.
ESPN FPI projection: N/A
TKR's prediction: Win, 3-6
Follow Chris Nalwasky on Twitter @ChrisWasky.