After navigating through one of its more difficult stretches of the 2024-25 season, which included matchups against Alabama, Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Penn State, the Rutgers men’s basketball team finds themselves sitting at 6-4 overall, 1-1 in the Big Ten Conference, and 77 in the NET Rankings.
While it’s not the most ideal start to the season, the Scarlet Knights are still in a good position to make a run for the NCAA Tournament with a plethora of opportunities to add resume building wins, however, they now face a stretch of games in December that could cause significant damage to their postseason hopes.
Rutgers already set off one landmine in November when they suffered a non-conference Q3 road loss to Kennesaw State. It was a calculated risk by Steve Pikiell to have his Scarlet Knights play a road game against a mid-major program, but he wanted to give his players Ace Bailey and Jamichael Davis the opportunity to play in front of their families and hometown fans. In the end, the move backfired on Pikiell, and Rutgers now has a blemish on their NCAA Tournament resume. While it’s not a back breaking loss, the margin of error for Rutgers has now become slimmer.
One wrong move in December, and Rutgers could step on a landmine that would blow up their season, creating the insurmountable task of having to win the majority of their remaining Q1 and Q2 games in the Big Ten to make up for lost ground.
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DECEMBER LANDMINE STRETCH....
-- December 14th – Seton Hall (NET: 197 / Q4)
-- December 21st – vs Princeton (NET: 115 / Q3)
-- December 30th – Columbia (NET: 108 / Q3)
On Saturday, Rutgers will host Seton Hall in the annual Garden State Hardwood Classic rivalry game. If there’s anything Rutgers fans should know about the game on Saturday, of the three landmines in December, this is the one their beloved Scarlet Knights must absolutely win.
Seton Hall enter Saturday’s contest with a record of 5-5, which includes two embarrassing Q4 losses to Fordham and Monmouth as well as a Q3 neutral site loss to Hofstra. It’s clear this is not Seton Hall head coach Shaheen Holloway’s best team as the metrics have been extraordinarily poor on the offensive end, however, the Pirates do boast one of the nation’s best defensive units. It’s almost as if this year’s Seton Hall team is a replica of last year’s Rutgers team. Last season’s Rutgers team displayed some of the most woeful offense imaginable it became gut-wrenching to watch, which is what Pirates fans are probably going through right now.
In the last two years, it has been both sides that have caused one another to miss the NCAA Tournament. In December 2022, Seton Hall tripped up Rutgers in an ugly onslaught at Jersey Mike’s Arena that gave the Scarlet Knights a damaging Q3 loss, preventing them from dancing in March. In December 2023, Rutgers returned the favor as they blitzed the Pirates from the start and handed Seton Hall a Q3 loss that proved costly. The Pirates were spurned by the NCAA Tournament Committee on Selection Sunday as the Q3 loss to Rutgers proved to be the difference among the bubble teams.
Not only is the trophy and bragging rights from the Garden State Hardwood Classic on the line but Rutgers season could very well be at stake. It’s crazy to even say this even though it’s only December, but if history has a way of repeating itself, and if Seton Hall were to come away with a victory at Jersey Mike’s Arena, it could potentially crush Rutgers’ postseason aspirations, sending shockwaves through Rutgers Nation.
Following the tilt against Seton Hall, Rutgers also faces a dangerous, testy team in Princeton in another neutral site affair as part of the Never Forget Tribute Classic in Brick City on December 21st. Although Princeton has a NET Ranking of 115, it’s likely the Tigers will not climb the rankings and will remain in Q3 territory for the Scarlet Knights the remainder of the season. A loss to Princeton would certainly prove damaging for Rutgers.
The Tigers are somewhat of an anomaly this season as they have put together a decent record at 7-4 with a solid Q2 win at Northeastern and close Q2 losses to Loyola-Chicago and Furman, but Princeton also registered two head scratching Q3 losses in the Myrtle Beach Invitational to Texas State and Wright State. For Princeton, the matchup with Rutgers means everything to them as this is likely their best chance to play spoiler and earn their highest rated victory of the season since the Tigers don’t play a single Q1 opponent on their schedule.
As these two teams take this storied series to a neutral hardwood for the second year in a row, one thing to keep in mind is Rutgers is just 2-5 in neutral site games under Steve Pikiell, with one of those five losses coming at the hands of Princeton. Without a doubt, Pikiell is going to have to have his young team not only mentally focused but ensure his team plays team basketball against Princeton.
If Rutgers plays hero ball and is disconnected as team just like they were against Kennesaw State, the Scarlet Knights will lose to Princeton. But if Rutgers plays team basketball on both sides of the ball just like the way they did against Penn State from a few nights ago, the Scarlet Knights will come out victorious against the Tigers. Everyone in New Jersey knows Rutgers has the better talent but it’s going come down to how connected this team can be come December 21st to avoid a Q3 loss.
The final hurdle for Rutgers in December before the Scarlet Knights return to their Big Ten schedule is against a much-improved Columbia team. The Lions are as dangerous as ever as they sit at 108 in the NET Rankings and are 10-1 with a stunning Q1 road win over Villanova.
According to T-Rank, Rutgers is projected to win this game easily by double-digits, but Columbia head coach Jim Engles will most certainly have his team ready. Although Jersey Mike’s Arena has one of the most impressive and imposing atmospheres in all of college basketball, Columbia will be already have been battle-tested after the Lions were unphased in their upset of Villanova at a sold out, raucous Finneran Pavilion.
With Columbia playing its best basketball since the 2015-16 season and this matchup scheduled between Christmas and New Year’s Day, Rutgers can ill-afford to sleepwalk through this game. It’s a game they need to take very seriously to avoid a damaging Q3 home loss.
OUTLOOK....
Over the course of November and through the first week of December, Rutgers has learned a lot about themselves and have grown as a team. When Rutgers dropped two in a row in close games to a potential national championship contender in Alabama and a physical Top 25 team in Texas A&M and got beat up in their Big Ten road opener at Ohio State, the Scarlet Knights got off the mat and fought back. Rutgers showed spirit and played with physicality, defended better, and played team-oriented basketball in their upset of red-hot Penn State, at the time was playing as just as good as anyone in the country.
One of the most important takeaways was that Rutgers learned how to win a close game. Although the game against Penn State should’ve never had been as close as it was, it was vital for Rutgers to find a way to win. Had Rutgers found ways to win in close games against Alabama and Texas A&M, the Scarlet Knights would probably have a lot more merit to their NCAA Tournament resume and we wouldn’t be having these conversations about the December slate that lies ahead.
While I do believe Rutgers will go unscathed the rest of the way in December, it won’t be easy. Expect all three games to be close games. If Rutgers finishes 3-0, as we all expect, then the Scarlet Knights will be in pretty good shape heading into January’s Big Ten schedule. But if Rutgers finishes 2-1 or worse, the Scarlet Knights will be in terrible shape and will have to cover an enormous amount of ground in the Big Ten schedule, which is proving to be one of the most grueling in all of college basketball, to overcome what would be catastrophic losses if fans want to dream of this team playing in the NCAA Tournament.
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