RutgersFan.com NCAA Tournament Outlook, Part I

Following is Part I of bac2therac's annual NCAA Outlook, an analysis of NCAA-bound and bubble teams from the 7 major conferences. Included are teams' records, RPI, analysis and predictions. And stay tuned for Part II -- the mid-majors -- tomorrow, as well as updates in subsequent weeks.

RECORDS AND RPI ARE THROUGH THURSDAY'S GAMES

ACC

DUKE: 20-4, rpi 5 -- IN

WAKE FOREST: 23-4, rpi 6 -- IN

NORTH CAROLINA: 23-3, rpi 7 -- IN

MARYLAND: 16-9, rpi 32

MIAMI: 16-9, rpi 47

GEORGIA TECH: 15-9, rpi 52

N.C. STATE: 15-11, rpi 89

VIRGINIA TECH: 14-10, rpi 106

THE SKINNY: ACC is still a big mess right now after the top 3 and probably won't be worked out until the ACC tourney is complete. Maryland looked close to being in a week ago, but a horrible loss at home to Clemson sent their stock plummeting. The Terps are probably two wins away from a NCAA spot. They get UNC at home and Va Tech on the road. If they split those and then win one in the ACC tourney, they'll be in, but if they lose their last two, they will need an impressive ACC tourney to get a bid.

Georgia Tech lost to Duke at home and they are spiraling right now. They need to win 2 of their next 3 at mininum and then show up in the ACC tourney. Miami lost a big game at Va Tech last week, and with Geo Tech and Duke left, opportunity is in their hands. If the Canes can win both, they are in no question. A split though means the pressure will be on in the ACC tourney to deliver a big win.

NC State simply must win their last 3 games to get to 8-8 in league, and that will include beating Wake ... and that's just to get onto the bubble. Virginia Tech got a huge win over Duke and then followed it up by a big win over Miami. The overall rpi number is poor for the Hokies, but they have 4 wins vs, the top 25 rpi and are 7-9 vs, top 100 rpi ... impressive numbers. The obvious negatives are the dismal OCC SOS of 314 and the poor 3-7 road record. Still, if the Hokies can finish out 10-6/9-7 in the ACC they are the prototypical bubble child. ACC looking at 5-6 bids.

BIG EAST

BOSTON COLLEGE: 22-2, rpi 4 -- IN

VILLANOVA: 18-6, rpi 14 -- IN

SYRACUSE: 23-5, rpi 19 -- IN

CONNECTICUT: 18-6, rpi 22 -- IN

NOTRE DAME: 16-8, rpi 40

WEST VIRGINIA: 17-8, rpi 46

PITTSBURGH: 18-6, rpi 51

GEORGETOWN: 16-8, rpi 57

THE SKINNY: WVU now has officially landed on the bubble with their sweep of Pitt. The Mountaineers' rpi has skyrocketed in the past few weeks. If they can take care of business vs. SHU and RU and win one in the BE tourney, WVU will be dancing. Pitt's loss to WVU changes a lot in the BE. Pitt still needs two more wins to get an at-large bid. Their rpi numbers are shaky and have no big out-of-conference wins ... with ND, UConn and BC left, Pitt is going to need to step up.

Notre Dame has three home games to close the season, and if they sweep them, they remove any NCAA doubt. Still 2-1 with a win over UCLA puts them in decent shape given a BE tourney win. Georgetown's stock is falling following a horrific loss to St John's. The Hoyas' rpi is fading as well, a reflection of their weak BE schedule. G'town gets Nova and PC at home and UConn on the road to close the season. If they don't win 2 out of those 3, they are out barring an impressive BE tourney. BE looking at 6-7 bids but not 8.

BIG 12

KANSAS: 20-4, rpi 1 -- IN

OKLAHOMA STATE: 19-4, rpi 3 -- IN

OKLAHOMA: 20-6, rpi 15 -- IN

TEXAS TECH: 17-7, rpi 28

TEXAS: 17-8, rpi 34

IOWA STATE: 15-9, rpi 61

TEXAS A&M: 15-7, rpi 87

THE SKINNY: Texas Tech's win over Texas puts them on the verge right now. They are 8-7 vs. top 100 rpi and need two wins from the rest of the regular season and in the Big 12 tourney to lock it up. Meanwhile, Texas continues to float. They are just 3-8 vs. top 100 rpi and 4-7 on the road. OU and OSU loom on their schedule, and they'll need to take one of those plus beat Missouri at home to be safe.

Iowa State was being prematurely penciled in by many pundits after their impressive 7-game run, but the road loss to Texas A&M did some damage. Still, if the Cyclones can sweep Nebraska, Missouri and Colorado to end the season, they won't have to worry about sweating it out. Texas A&M's win over ISU kept their flickering NCAA hopes alive. With an atrocious out-of-conference schedule, the Aggies are going to have to win their last 3 and make the Big 12 semis ... of course, that would include winning at OSU -- not very likely. The Big 12 is looking at 5 or 6 bids.

BIG TEN

ILLINOIS: 28-0, rpi 2 -- IN

WISCONSIN: 17-7, rpi 18 -- IN

MICHIGAN STATE: 19-4, rpi 20 -- IN

MINNESOTA: 18-9, rpi 49

IOWA: 16-10, rpi 72

INDIANA: 13-11, rpi 84

THE SKINNY: Minnesota is starting to look good right now after a very important win vs. Iowa. If the Gophers can close out with two wins vs. PSU and Purdue they are lock city. Iowa just fell to 4-9 in league, and while they have good numbers vs. the top 100 rpi (7-7), they cannot finish with an above-.500 conference mark and are destined for the NIT. Indiana is just 3-8 on the road and just 3-10 vs. top 100 rpi. The only thing keeping them near the bubble is their 8-5 Big 10 mark. They get MSU at home and Wisconsin on the road, and at this point, they will simply have to win them both ... without that, even a run to the Big Ten finals probably wouldn't be enough. Big Ten is shaping up for four bids.

Conference USA

CINCINNATI: 20-6, rpi 21 -- IN

CHARLOTTE: 20-4, rpi 23 -- IN

LOUISVILLE: 21-4, rpi 25 -- IN

DePAUL: 17-7, rpi 33

HOUSTON: 17-10, rpi 68

MARQUETTE 17-8, rpi 69

TEXAS CHRISTIAN: 15-10, rpi 78

ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM: 17-9, rpi 83

MEMPHIS: 16-11, rpi 110

THE SKINNY: Still a lot of question marks with this conference and lots to be played out. DePaul is very close right now. They are 7-3 vs. top 100 rpi and probably can get by with just one more win. Marquette is in a heap of trouble because their league mark is just 6-7. They got a big win over DePaul on Sunday but will simply need to take down Cincy on the road or they'll have to depend on a run to the C-USA finals. Houston is in a decent position if they can go 3-0 vs. EC, Marquette and UAB, which would give them 20 wins and 11-5 in league. They'll be an interesting case.

TCU will need to win their last 4, and that includes beating Cincy at home, but the rest are bottom feeders. Again, like Houston, if they can do it, they are deserving of bubble status. In the midst of a 4-game losing streak, UAB is in serious trouble and will need to also sweep their last 4 and then pray some. What will the NCAA committee do with Memphis? They have an awful rpi but are 9-4 in league. The final 3 games will say a lot. The Tigers get Louisville at home and Cincy on the road, and they'll need to win one if not both of those. C-USA will get 4 or 5 bids, but 6 would be pushing it.

PAC-10

WASHINGTON: 20-4, rpi 8 -- IN

ARIZONA: 23-4, rpi 10 -- IN

UCLA: 14-9, rpi 39

STANFORD: 15-9, rpi 41

ARIZONA STATE: 18-10, rpi 58

THE SKINNY: I have some serious issues with UCLA. They just lost a big game to Stanford and they are just 1-7 vs. top 50 rpi teams ... compared to 3-4 for Stanford, although both are a respectable 6-7 vs. top 100 rpi. The Bruins also have lost 6 of their last 10 are just 8-7 in the Pac-10. They have 3 league home games and will need to win them all, plus their nonconference tilt at Notre Dame will be huge. If they can win all of them, they are in, but if they slip up somewhere, I think they will need a good Pac-10 tourney to get them in.

Stanford has a better Pac-10 mark at 9-5 and closes with the Oregon schools on the road and the Washington schools at home. If they can go 3-1 in that stretch, they are looking like a good bet ... a win over Washington would be particular good. Arizona St. lost 7 of 10 prior to sweeping the Oregon schools at home. Big games with Washington on the road and Arizona at home still remain, and the Sun Devils need to win them both if they want to dance. The Pac-10 is looking at three, maybe four bids but certainly not 5.

SEC

KENTUCKY: 21-3, rpi 11 -- IN

ALABAMA: 21-5, rpi 13 -- IN

LSU: 16-8, rpi 27

MISSISSIPPI STATE: 19-8, rpi 31

FLORIDA: 17-7, rpi 42

VANDERBILT: 16-11, rpi 64

SOUTH CAROLINA: 14-10, rpi 73

THE SKINNY: LSU has now won 7 of 9, including consecutive wins over Florida, Miss. State and Alabama, and is getting really close to securing a bid. Now 8-6 vs. top 100 rpi, LSU probably just needs to win 2 of their last 3 and that will do ... even one and then one in the SEC tourney should be enough. Mississippi St. has sputtered of late and their resume is not all that rosy. They had lost 6 of 10 before their win over Georgia, but they probably need just two wins from regular season and SEC tourney combined to punch their ticket.

Florida, after beating Vandy, is in decent postion right now and like Miss. State probably needs two more wins to get in. Vandy lost a tough one to Florida, and now the Commodores will have to win their last 3 -- including at LSU -- to position themselves on the bubble come SEC tourney time ... tough spot. So. Carolina is on life support now following their loss to Tennessee and will simply have to win their last 3 and do well in the SEC tourney to get a bid.